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To help the Air Force better anticipate cost and schedule challenges and manage programs, this study developed a methodology to evaluate the likelihood of cost growth and schedule slip for major defense acquisition projects (MDAPs).
Preface
iii
Figures
vii
Tables
ix
Summary
xi
Acknowledgments
xix
Abbreviations
xxi
Chapter One Introduction
1
(6)
Chapter Two Program Outcomes and Characteristics Considered in This Analysis
7
(18)
Measures of Cost and Schedule Growth
7
(4)
Program Characteristics of Interest
11
(14)
Chapter Three Relating Cost and Schedule Growth to Program Characteristics
25
(10)
Regression Methodology
25
(2)
Interpretation of the Regression Coefficients
27
(8)
Chapter Four Estimates of Cost and Schedule Risk for MDAPs in the Air Force's Current Portfolio
35
(8)
How Reliable Are Cost and Schedule Estimates Produced at MS B?
37
(1)
Uncertainty Ranges for Current Air Force MDAPs
38
(5)
Chapter Five Concluding Remarks
43
(4)
APPENDIXES
A Plots of RDT&E Spending Versus Cost and Schedule Growth
47
(6)
B Alternative Regression Specifications
53
(10)
C Predictions of APUC, Development Cost, and Schedule Growth Confidence Intervals for Continuing and New Programs