| Acknowledgments |
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11 | (8) |
| Introduction to the Fiftieth Anniversary Edition |
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19 | (14) |
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Part One STOCKS AND THEIR VALUE |
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1 Firm Foundations and Castles in the Air |
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33 | (11) |
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34 | (2) |
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Investing as a Way of Life Today |
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36 | (2) |
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38 | (1) |
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The Firm-Foundation Theory |
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39 | (2) |
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The Castle-in-the-Air Theory |
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41 | (2) |
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How the Random Walk Is to Be Conducted |
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43 | (1) |
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44 | (19) |
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45 | (3) |
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48 | (7) |
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55 | (7) |
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62 | (1) |
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3 Speculative Bubbles From the Sixties Into the Nineties |
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63 | (19) |
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The Sanity of Institutions |
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63 | (1) |
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64 | (8) |
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The New "New Era": The Growth-Stock/New-Issue Craze |
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64 | (3) |
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Synergy Generates Energy: The Conglomerate Boom |
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67 | (5) |
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72 | (2) |
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74 | (4) |
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74 | (1) |
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75 | (3) |
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78 | (4) |
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The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks |
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78 | (4) |
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4 The Explosive Bubbles in the Early Decades of the 2000s |
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82 | (35) |
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83 | (12) |
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A Broad-Scale High-Tech Bubble |
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84 | (2) |
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Yet Another New-Issue Craze |
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86 | (1) |
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87 | (1) |
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Security Analysts $peak Up |
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88 | (2) |
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90 | (1) |
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91 | (1) |
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Fraud Slithers In and Strangles the Market |
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92 | (2) |
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Should We Have Known the Dangers? |
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94 | (1) |
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The U.S. Housing Bubble and Crash of the Early 2000s |
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95 | (6) |
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The New System of Banking |
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96 | (1) |
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97 | (1) |
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98 | (3) |
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Bubbles and Economic Activity |
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101 | (2) |
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Does This Mean That Markets Are Inefficient? |
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101 | (2) |
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Mini Bubbles in Meme Stocks |
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103 | (2) |
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The Bubble in Cryptocurrencies |
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105 | (8) |
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105 | (2) |
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107 | (2) |
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Should the Bitcoin Phenomenon Be Called a Bubble? |
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109 | (1) |
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What Can Make the Bitcoin Bubble Deflate? |
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110 | (1) |
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Other Digital Mini-Bubbles |
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111 | (2) |
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113 | (4) |
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Part Two HOW THE PROS PLAY THE BIGGEST GAME IN TOWN |
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5 Technical and Fundamental Analysis |
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117 | (1) |
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Technical versus Fundamental Analysis |
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118 | (1) |
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What Can Charts Tell You? |
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119 | (4) |
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The Rationale for the Charting Method |
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123 | (1) |
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Why Might Charting Fail to Work? |
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124 | (1) |
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From Chartist to Technician |
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125 | (1) |
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The Technique of Fundamental Analysis |
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126 | (7) |
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133 | (2) |
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Why Might Fundamental Analysis Fail to Work? |
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135 | (2) |
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Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis Together |
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137 | (4) |
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6 Technical Analysis and the Random-Walk Theory |
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141 | (21) |
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Holes in Their Shoes and Ambiguity in Their Forecasts |
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141 | (2) |
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Is There Momentum in the Stock Market? |
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143 | (1) |
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Just What Exactly Is a Random Walk? |
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144 | (4) |
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Some More Elaborate Technical Systems |
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148 | (4) |
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148 | (1) |
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149 | (1) |
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The Relative-Strength System |
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150 | (1) |
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150 | (1) |
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150 | (1) |
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Randomness Is Hard to Accept |
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151 | (1) |
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A Gaggle of Other Technical Theories to Help You Lose Money |
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152 | (6) |
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153 | (1) |
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154 | (1) |
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155 | (1) |
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155 | (1) |
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156 | (1) |
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157 | (1) |
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Appraising the Counterattack |
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158 | (2) |
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Implications for Investors |
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160 | (2) |
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7 How Good Is Fundamental Analysis? The Efficient-Market Hypothesis |
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162 | (25) |
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The Views from Wall Street and Academia |
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163 | (1) |
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Are Security Analysts Fundamentally Clairvoyant? |
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163 | (2) |
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Why the Crystal Ball Is Clouded |
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165 | (10) |
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1 The Influence of Random Events |
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166 | (1) |
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2 The Production of Dubious Reported Earnings through "Creative" Accounting Procedures |
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167 | (2) |
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3 Errors Made by the Analysts Themselves |
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169 | (2) |
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4 The Loss of the Best Analysts to the Sales Desk, to Portfolio Management, or to Hedge Funds |
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171 | (1) |
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5 The Conflicts of Interest between Research and Investment Banking Departments |
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172 | (3) |
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Do Security Analysts Pick Winners? The Performance of the Mutual Funds |
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175 | (7) |
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The Semi-Strong and Strong Forms of the Efficient-Market Hypothesis (EMH) |
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182 | (5) |
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Part Three THE NEW INVESTMENT TECHNOLOGY |
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8 A New Walking Shoe: Modern Portfolio Theory |
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187 | (19) |
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188 | (1) |
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Defining Bisk: The Dispersion of Returns |
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189 | (3) |
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Illustration: Expected Return and Variance Measures of Reward and Risk |
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190 | (2) |
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Documenting Risk: A Long-Run Study |
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192 | (3) |
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Reducing Risk: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) |
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195 | (4) |
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Diversification in Practice |
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199 | (7) |
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9 Reaping Reward By Increasing Risk |
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206 | (20) |
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207 | (3) |
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The Capital-Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) |
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210 | (6) |
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216 | (2) |
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An Appraisal of the Evidence |
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218 | (2) |
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The Quant Quest for Better Measures of Risk: Arbitrage Pricing Theory |
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220 | (2) |
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The Fama-French Three-Factor Model |
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222 | (1) |
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A Multifactor Explanation of Stock Prices |
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223 | (1) |
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223 | (3) |
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226 | (31) |
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The Irrational Behavior of Individual Investors |
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229 | (15) |
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229 | (3) |
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232 | (4) |
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236 | (4) |
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240 | (2) |
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242 | (2) |
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Behavioral Finance and Savings |
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244 | (1) |
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245 | (4) |
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What Are the Lessons for Investors from Behavioral Finance? |
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249 | (7) |
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250 | (2) |
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252 | (1) |
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3 If You Do Trade: Sell Losers, Not Winners |
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253 | (1) |
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4 Other Stupid Investor Tricks |
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254 | (2) |
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Does Behavioral Finance Teach Ways to Beat the Market? |
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256 | (1) |
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11 New Methods of Portfolio Construction: Smart Beta, Risk Parity, and Esg Investing |
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257 | (32) |
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258 | (2) |
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Four Tasty Flavors: Their Pros and Cons |
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260 | (9) |
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260 | (2) |
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262 | (1) |
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3 There Is Some Momentum in the Stock Market |
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263 | (2) |
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4 Low-Beta Stocks May Return as Much as High-Beta Stocks |
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265 | (1) |
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265 | (1) |
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265 | (2) |
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Blended Factor Strategies |
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267 | (2) |
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Blended Funds in Practice |
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269 | (3) |
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Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) |
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269 | (1) |
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Research Affiliates Fundamental Index™ (RAFI) |
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270 | (1) |
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Goldman Sachs Active Beta ETF |
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270 | (1) |
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Equally-Weighted Portfolios |
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270 | (2) |
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Implications for Investors |
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272 | (1) |
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273 | (8) |
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The Risk-Parity Technique |
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274 | (2) |
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Safe Bonds May Also Provide Opportunities to Employ Risk-Parity Techniques |
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276 | (1) |
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Risk Parity versus the Traditional 60/40 Portfolio |
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277 | (2) |
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Bridgewater's All Weather Fund |
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279 | (1) |
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279 | (2) |
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281 | (5) |
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286 | (3) |
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Part Four A PRACTICAL GUIDE FOR RANDOM WALKERS AND OTHER INVESTORS |
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12 A Fitness Manual for Random Walkers and Other Investors |
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289 | (38) |
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Exercise 1 Gather the Necessary Supplies |
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290 | (2) |
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Exercise 2 Don't Be Caught Empty-Handed: Cover Yourself with Cash Reserves and Insurance |
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292 | (3) |
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292 | (1) |
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293 | (1) |
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Deferred Variable Annuities |
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294 | (1) |
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Exercise 3 Be Competitive---Let the Yield on Your Cash Reserve Keep Pace with Inflation |
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295 | (3) |
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Money-Market Mutual Funds (Money Funds) |
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296 | (1) |
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Bank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) |
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296 | (1) |
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297 | (1) |
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297 | (1) |
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Tax-Exempt Money-Market Funds |
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298 | (1) |
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Exercise 4 Learn How to Dodge the Tax Collector |
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298 | (8) |
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Individual Retirement Accounts |
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299 | (1) |
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300 | (1) |
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301 | (1) |
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Saving for College: As Easy as 529 |
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302 | (4) |
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Exercise 5 Make Sure the Shoe Fits: Understand Your Investment Objectives |
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306 | (5) |
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Exercise 6 Begin Your Walk at Your Own Home---Renting Leads to Flabby Investment Muscles |
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311 | (2) |
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Exercise 7 How to Investigate a Promenade through Bond Country |
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313 | (7) |
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Zero-Coupon Bonds Can Be Useful to Fund Future Liabilities |
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313 | (1) |
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No-Load Bond Funds Can Be Appropriate Vehicles for Individual Investors |
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314 | (1) |
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Tax-Exempt Bonds Are Useful for High-Bracket Investors |
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315 | (2) |
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Hot TIPS: Inflation-Protected Bonds |
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317 | (1) |
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U.S. Treasury I Bonds: The Best Alternative for Individuals |
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318 | (1) |
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Should You Be a Bond-Market Junkie? |
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318 | (1) |
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319 | (1) |
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Exercise 7A Use Bond Substitutes for Part of the Aggregate Bond Portfolio during Eras of Financial Repression |
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320 | (1) |
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Exercise 8 Tiptoe through the Fields of Gold, Collectibles, and Other Investments |
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321 | (3) |
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Exercise 9 Remember That Investment Costs Are Not Random; Some Are Lower Than Others |
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324 | (1) |
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Exercise 10 Avoid Sinkholes and Stumbling Blocks: Diversify Your Investment Steps |
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325 | (1) |
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326 | (1) |
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13 Handicapping the Financial Race: A Primer in Understanding and Projecting Returns From Stocks and Bonds |
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327 | (20) |
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What Determines the Returns from Stocks and Bonds? |
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327 | (5) |
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Four Historical Eras of Financial Market Returns |
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332 | (10) |
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333 | (2) |
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335 | (4) |
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Era III The Age of Exuberance |
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339 | (2) |
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Era IV The Age of Disenchantment |
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341 | (1) |
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The Markets from 2009 to 2022 |
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342 | (1) |
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Handicapping Future Returns |
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343 | (4) |
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14 A Life-Cycle Guide to Investing |
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347 | (30) |
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Five Asset-Allocation Principles |
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348 | (13) |
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1 Risk and Reward Are Related |
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349 | (1) |
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2 Your Actual Risk in Stock and Bond Investing Depends on the Length of Time You Hold Your Investment |
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350 | (3) |
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3 Dollar-Cost Averaging Can Reduce the Risks of Investing in Stocks and Bonds |
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353 | (4) |
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4 Rebalancing Can Reduce Investment Risk and Possibly Increase Returns |
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357 | (2) |
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5 Distinguishing between Your Attitude toward and Your Capacity for Risk |
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359 | (2) |
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Three Guidelines to Tailoring a Life-Cycle Investment Plan |
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361 | (2) |
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1 Specific Needs Require Dedicated Specific Assets |
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361 | (1) |
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2 Recognize Your Tolerance for Risk |
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362 | (1) |
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3 Persistent Saving in Regular Amounts, No Matter How Small, Pays Off |
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362 | (1) |
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The Life-Cycle Investment Guide |
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363 | (5) |
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Life-Cycle (Target Date) Funds |
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368 | (1) |
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Investment Management Once You Have Retired |
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369 | (1) |
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Inadequate Preparation for Retirement |
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369 | (1) |
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Investing a Retirement Nest Egg |
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370 | (3) |
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370 | (3) |
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The Do-It-Yourself Method |
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373 | (4) |
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15 Three Giant Steps Down Wall Street |
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377 | (44) |
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The No-Brainer Step: Investing in Index Funds |
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379 | (10) |
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The Index-Fund Solution: A Summary |
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380 | (3) |
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A Broader Definition of Indexing |
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383 | (2) |
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A Specific Index-Fund Portfolio |
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385 | (2) |
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387 | (2) |
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The Do-It-Yourself Step: Potentially Useful Stock-Picking Rules |
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389 | (5) |
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The Substitute-Player Step: Hiring a Professional Wall Street Walker |
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394 | (1) |
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Investment Advisers, Standard and Automated |
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395 | (5) |
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Some Last Reflections on Our Walk |
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400 | (2) |
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402 | (2) |
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404 | (5) |
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A Random Walker's Address Book and Reference Guide to Mutual Funds and ETFs |
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409 | (12) |
| Index |
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421 | |
