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xv | |
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xix | |
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xxii | |
Abbreviations |
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xxiii | |
Preface |
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xxvii | |
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1 Real estate (RE): an overview of the sector |
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1 | (11) |
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1 | (1) |
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1.1 Definition of real estate (RE) |
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1 | (1) |
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1.2 RE subsectors (or submarkets) |
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2 | (1) |
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3 | (2) |
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1.4 Location and `authentic' versus `derived' demand for RE |
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5 | (1) |
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1.5 Other characteristics of RE - and wider interactions |
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6 | (3) |
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1.6 Why study RE economics? |
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9 | (3) |
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12 | (34) |
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12 | (1) |
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2.1 Mathematical techniques |
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13 | (7) |
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13 | (2) |
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2.1.2 Partial and total differentiation |
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15 | (1) |
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16 | (1) |
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2.1.4 Optimizing functions of more than one variable |
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17 | (1) |
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2.1.5 Constrained optimization |
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18 | (1) |
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2.1.6 Implicit differentiation |
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19 | (1) |
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19 | (1) |
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20 | (17) |
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20 | (1) |
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2.2.2 Indifference curves |
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21 | (2) |
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2.2.3 Useful demand and utility functions |
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23 | (3) |
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2.2.4 From Cobb-Douglas utility to Cobb-Douglas demand |
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26 | (1) |
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2.2.5 Income and substitution effects |
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27 | (1) |
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2.2.6 Income and substitution effects: locating the tangency solutions |
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28 | (2) |
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2.2.7 Income and substitution effects in housing |
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30 | (1) |
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2.2.8 Elasticity of substitution (εs) |
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31 | (2) |
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2.2.9 Characteristics theory |
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33 | (1) |
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2.2.10 Isoquants, isocosts, MPP, MRP, and profit maximization |
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33 | (4) |
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2.3 Statistical primer: regression, co-integration, Granger causality |
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37 | (9) |
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37 | (2) |
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2.3.2 Regression and causality |
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39 | (1) |
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40 | (1) |
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2.3.4 More on time series |
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40 | (2) |
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2.3.5 A graphical example |
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42 | (1) |
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43 | (1) |
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44 | (1) |
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44 | (1) |
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Review questions and exercises |
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44 | (2) |
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3 RE in the wider economy |
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46 | (37) |
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46 | (1) |
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3.1 RE in the National Accounts |
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47 | (6) |
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3.2 RE investment and economic growth |
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53 | (8) |
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53 | (4) |
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3.2.2 A limit to the share of construction in GDP? |
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57 | (1) |
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3.2.3 Who pulls whom - GDP or construction? |
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58 | (3) |
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3.3 Determinants of RE investment; Tobin's q |
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61 | (5) |
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3.3.1 Utility-driven investment |
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61 | (1) |
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62 | (2) |
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3.3.3 RE investment as inflation hedge |
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64 | (1) |
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3.3.4 The role of `fundamentals' |
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65 | (1) |
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3.3.5 What about non-residential property? |
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65 | (1) |
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3.4 The effect of RE prices on the economy |
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66 | (3) |
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3.4.1 The consumption channel |
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66 | (1) |
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3.4.2 The investment channel |
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66 | (3) |
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3.4.3 The financial sector channel |
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69 | (1) |
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3.4.4 The inflation channel |
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69 | (1) |
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3.4.5 The government's fiscal position channel |
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69 | (1) |
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3.5 The housing wealth effect (HWE) |
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69 | (9) |
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3.5.1 The HWE as a home-equity adjustment |
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70 | (2) |
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3.5.2 The HWE as a PILC adjustment |
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72 | (2) |
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3.5.3 The HWE as a consumer-credit adjustment |
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74 | (1) |
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3.5.4 How strong is the HWE effect, then? |
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75 | (3) |
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3.6 Homeownership and the labour market |
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78 | (5) |
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80 | (1) |
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Review questions and exercises |
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81 | (2) |
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4 RE finance: loans, equity withdrawal, and MBSs |
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83 | (41) |
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83 | (1) |
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4.1 Loans, mortgages, and maths |
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84 | (2) |
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4.2 Forward mortgages: basic loan types |
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86 | (8) |
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4.2.1 The interest-and-capital repayment loan |
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86 | (2) |
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4.2.2 The interest-only loan |
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88 | (2) |
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90 | (2) |
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4.2.4 The stabilized loan |
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92 | (1) |
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4.2.5 The select-payment loan |
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93 | (1) |
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4.2.6 The cap-and-collar loan |
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93 | (1) |
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4.2.7 The index-linked loan |
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93 | (1) |
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4.3 Remortgaging and equity withdrawal |
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94 | (4) |
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4.3.1 Variable versus fixed interest rates |
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94 | (1) |
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4.3.2 From prepayment to refinancing |
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95 | (2) |
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4.3.3 Cash-out refinancing |
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97 | (1) |
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4.3.4 Tapping into one's home equity |
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97 | (1) |
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4.4 Reverse (or equity release) mortgages |
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98 | (7) |
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4.4.1 Mechanics of a reverse mortgage |
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100 | (3) |
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4.4.2 A right interest rate for a reverse mortgage? |
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103 | (2) |
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4.5 Reverse mortgages in the USA and the UK |
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105 | (2) |
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4.6 Housing finance and homeownership |
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107 | (5) |
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4.7 Mortgage securitization (MS) |
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112 | (12) |
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113 | (3) |
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116 | (1) |
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116 | (4) |
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4.7.4 Effect on RE market |
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120 | (1) |
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121 | (1) |
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Review questions and exercises |
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122 | (2) |
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5 RE as an investment decision |
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124 | (38) |
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124 | (1) |
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5.1 Definition of commercial RE |
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125 | (1) |
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5.2 The language of the market place |
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126 | (3) |
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126 | (3) |
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5.2.2 Investment vehicles |
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129 | (1) |
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5.3 Characteristics of investment in RE |
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129 | (3) |
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5.4 A portfolio approach to RE investment |
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132 | (10) |
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132 | (6) |
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5.4.2 RE and correlation between assets |
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138 | (1) |
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5.4.3 RE across countries: correlations (A) |
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139 | (1) |
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5.4.4 RE & other asset classes: correlations (B) |
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139 | (1) |
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139 | (3) |
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142 | (16) |
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5.5.1 Investment appraisal: NPV and IRR |
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146 | (3) |
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5.5.2 Special cases in property valuation |
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149 | (3) |
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5.5.3 The capitalization rate |
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152 | (2) |
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154 | (2) |
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5.5.5 The band-of-investment concept |
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156 | (2) |
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5.6 Physical life and economic life |
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158 | (1) |
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5.7 Property derivatives and options |
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158 | (4) |
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159 | (1) |
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Review questions and exercises |
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160 | (2) |
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6 Demand for office-retail-industrial space |
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162 | (39) |
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162 | (1) |
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6.1 Demand for office space |
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163 | (20) |
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6.1.1 Vacant space-occupied space |
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163 | (4) |
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6.1.2 Mathematical modelling of the short term |
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167 | (2) |
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6.1.3 Mathematical modelling of the long term |
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169 | (1) |
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6.1.4 A disturbance and re-establishment of equilibrium |
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170 | (1) |
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6.1.5 The office rental cycle and the NVR |
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170 | (7) |
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6.1.6 Determinants of office demand (and supply) |
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177 | (3) |
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6.1.7 How is the NVR estimated? |
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180 | (1) |
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6.1.8 Office market analysis |
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181 | (2) |
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6.2 Demand for retail space |
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183 | (11) |
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6.2.1 The geographical frame of reference |
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184 | (1) |
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6.2.2 Methods of finding trade areas: the checklist method |
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185 | (2) |
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6.2.3 Methods of finding trade areas: the analogue method |
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187 | (1) |
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6.2.4 Methods of finding trade areas: multiple regression analysis (MRA) |
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187 | (1) |
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6.2.5 Methods of finding trade areas: gravity modelling |
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187 | (6) |
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6.2.6 Methods of finding trade areas: use of GIS |
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193 | (1) |
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6.3 Demand for industrial space |
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194 | (7) |
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199 | (1) |
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Review questions and exercises |
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199 | (2) |
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7 Housing demand and supply |
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201 | (38) |
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201 | (1) |
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7.1 Dwelling price versus dwelling rent |
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202 | (2) |
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204 | (1) |
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7.3 Modelling residential demand: a (demanding!) example |
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205 | (4) |
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7.3.1 The De Bruyne-Van Hove model |
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206 | (3) |
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7.4 Adding supply: an extended model |
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209 | (2) |
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7.5 Determinants of housing demand and supply |
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211 | (2) |
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7.6 A practical example of housing `demand' calculation |
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213 | (2) |
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7.7 Construction, development, and supply changes |
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215 | (1) |
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7.8 A developer's profit maximization problem |
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216 | (10) |
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7.8.1 Profit-maximization in the face of planning constraints |
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216 | (2) |
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7.8.2 The RRR approach to development |
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218 | (1) |
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7.8.3 Profit maximization in the face of a land price |
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219 | (6) |
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7.8.4 More on the negotiation dimension |
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225 | (1) |
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226 | (13) |
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7.9.1 The `Anglo-American' mode of residential development |
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226 | (4) |
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7.9.2 The `Greek' mode of residential development |
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230 | (3) |
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233 | (2) |
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235 | (2) |
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Review questions and exercises |
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237 | (2) |
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8 Construction flows and market equilibrium |
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239 | (34) |
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239 | (1) |
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8.1 Capital stock adjustment models (CSAMs) |
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240 | (2) |
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8.2 The DiPasquale - Wheaton (DiPW) model |
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242 | (3) |
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8.3 Summing up the DiPW model |
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245 | (1) |
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8.4 From the DiPW model to a modified CSAM |
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246 | (6) |
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8.4.1 Example A: linear demand |
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248 | (3) |
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8.4.2 From example A: estimating supply |
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251 | (1) |
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8.4.3 Example B: curvilinear demand |
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252 | (1) |
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8.5 CSAMs and the role of expectations |
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252 | (5) |
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8.5.1 `Excessive' response to a price shock |
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253 | (2) |
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8.5.2 `Myopic' and `rational' expectations |
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255 | (1) |
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8.5.3 Developers' responses to prices in the face of uncertainty |
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256 | (1) |
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8.6 The `riddle' of mean reversion |
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257 | (3) |
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8.7 The capitalization factor k in the DiPW model |
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260 | (1) |
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261 | (8) |
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8.8.1 Question (a): one cycle or many? |
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263 | (4) |
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8.8.2 Question (b): origin of the shock |
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267 | (1) |
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8.8.3 Question (c): pro- or counter-cyclical? |
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267 | (1) |
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8.8.4 Question (d): short cycles, long swings? |
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268 | (1) |
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8.8.5 Question (e): different sectors, different cycles? |
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268 | (1) |
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8.8.6 Question (f): cycles and expectations |
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269 | (1) |
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8.9 Appendix: a note on difference equations |
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269 | (4) |
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271 | (1) |
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Review questions and exercises |
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271 | (2) |
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273 | (38) |
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273 | (1) |
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9.1 An introduction to taxes and taxation |
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274 | (6) |
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274 | (2) |
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9.1.2 Principles of taxation |
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276 | (4) |
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9.2 (In)ability to pay RE taxes |
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280 | (4) |
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9.3 Is it better to tax property or income from it? |
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284 | (2) |
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9.4 Property taxes, income taxes, and growth |
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286 | (1) |
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9.5 Are RE taxes capitalized in RE prices? |
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287 | (7) |
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287 | (1) |
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9.5.2 Tax capitalization and tax incidence |
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287 | (1) |
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9.5.3 Capital-gains taxes |
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288 | (1) |
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289 | (1) |
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9.5.5 (Recurrent) property taxes |
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289 | (3) |
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9.5.6 More on the capitalization issue |
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292 | (2) |
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9.6 Taxation of imputed rental income |
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294 | (11) |
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9.6.1 The `imputed rent is income' argument |
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294 | (2) |
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9.6.2 The `income redistribution' argument |
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296 | (1) |
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9.6.3 The `tenure-neutrality' argument |
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296 | (1) |
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9.6.4 The `equal treatment of investments' argument |
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297 | (4) |
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9.6.5 The `taxation efficiency' argument |
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301 | (2) |
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9.6.6 Efficiency and preferences |
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303 | (2) |
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9.7 Appendix: incidence calculation of an ad valorem tax |
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305 | (6) |
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307 | (1) |
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Review questions and exercises |
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308 | (3) |
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10 Land uses, values, and taxation |
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311 | (37) |
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311 | (1) |
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10.1 The land-use pattern in a market economy |
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312 | (1) |
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10.2 Land uses as expressions of urban hierarchies |
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312 | (3) |
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10.3 Land uses outwards from a city's core |
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315 | (2) |
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10.4 A firm's bid-rent curve |
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317 | (4) |
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10.4.1 A constant-revenue firm |
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317 | (2) |
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10.4.2 A variable-revenue, constant-price firm |
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319 | (2) |
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10.4.3 A variable-revenue, variable-price, and variable-quantity firm |
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321 | (1) |
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10.5 A household's bid-price curve |
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321 | (3) |
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10.5.1 A more traditional approach |
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322 | (2) |
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10.6 How bid-curves help create a land-use pattern |
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324 | (3) |
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10.7 A bid-curve for all land uses in an urban area |
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327 | (1) |
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10.8 Land-value taxation (LVT) |
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327 | (6) |
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10.8.1 Preliminary remarks |
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329 | (2) |
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10.8.2 Tax incidence and deadweight loss (DWL) |
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331 | (2) |
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10.9 Critical appraisal of arguments favouring LVT |
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333 | (6) |
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333 | (2) |
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335 | (1) |
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335 | (1) |
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336 | (1) |
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337 | (1) |
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10.9.6 Concluding remarks |
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338 | (1) |
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10.10 Economic rent from land |
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339 | (3) |
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10.11 Appendix: derivation of bid-rent curve and rend-gradient |
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342 | (6) |
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345 | (1) |
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Review questions and exercises |
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346 | (2) |
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11 Housing market bubbles |
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348 | (35) |
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348 | (1) |
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349 | (3) |
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11.1.1 Causes of bubbles - and bursts |
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349 | (2) |
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11.1.2 The significance of credit |
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351 | (1) |
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11.2 Why housing market bubbles matter a lot |
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352 | (1) |
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11.3 The US house-price bubble of 2006 - and its burst |
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353 | (3) |
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11.4 Planning restrictions and bubbles |
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356 | (2) |
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11.5 Conventional signs of a bubble |
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358 | (2) |
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11.6 Consequences of a house-price bubble burst |
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360 | (1) |
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11.7 Can asset-price bubbles be avoided? |
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361 | (9) |
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362 | (2) |
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11.7.2 `Automatic stabilizers' as `bubble-stoppers' |
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364 | (2) |
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11.7.3 An example of an `automatic stabilizer' RE tax |
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366 | (4) |
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11.8 Expected return, RRR, and house-price volatility |
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370 | (13) |
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11.8.1 `Fundamental' drivers and market `actors' |
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370 | (2) |
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11.8.2 Market `actors' behaviour |
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372 | (1) |
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11.8.3 A model of housing market volatility |
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373 | (3) |
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11.8.4 A model of housing market volatility (cont'd) |
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376 | (3) |
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11.8.5 Concluding remarks |
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379 | (1) |
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380 | (1) |
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Review questions and exercises |
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381 | (2) |
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12 RE performance and price measures |
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383 | (40) |
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383 | (1) |
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12.1 Value versus price versus performance |
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384 | (1) |
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12.2 Main RE performance measures |
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384 | (7) |
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12.2.1 Money-weighted versus time-weighted performance measures |
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385 | (4) |
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389 | (2) |
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12.3 RE price indices: prologue |
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391 | (3) |
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12.3.1 Price indices versus prices |
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391 | (3) |
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394 | (10) |
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12.4.1 A hedonics example |
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394 | (4) |
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12.4.2 A semi-logarithmic functional form |
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398 | (2) |
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12.4.3 Varying the weights |
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400 | (2) |
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12.4.4 The functional form problem in hedonics |
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402 | (2) |
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12.5 The repeat-sales method |
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404 | (3) |
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12.6 The mix-adjustment method |
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407 | (2) |
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409 | (1) |
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410 | (1) |
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12.8.1 Automated Valuation Models |
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410 | (1) |
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411 | (6) |
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411 | (4) |
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12.9.2 Repeat-sales indices |
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415 | (1) |
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12.9.3 Mix-adjustment, or stratification, indices |
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415 | (1) |
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416 | (1) |
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12.10 Appendix: hedonics theory |
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417 | (6) |
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421 | (1) |
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Review questions and exercises |
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422 | (1) |
Epilogue |
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423 | (3) |
Notes |
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426 | (15) |
References |
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441 | (25) |
Index |
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466 | |