Summary |
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1 | (9) |
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10 | (7) |
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2 Setting the Stage: Regulatory Horizons, Challenges, and Influences |
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17 | (29) |
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2.1 Future Regulatory Pathways |
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17 | (10) |
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2.1.1 Fleet Characteristics During the Phase III Standards Time Horizon |
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18 | (1) |
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2.1.2 Assessing the GHG Reductions and Fuel Savings Potential |
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19 | (7) |
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2.1.3 Timing: An Opportunity and a Challenge for the Phase III Rulemaking |
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26 | (1) |
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2.2 Key Regulatory Gaps and Challenges |
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27 | (10) |
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2.2.1 Defining Fuel Economy |
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27 | (1) |
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2.2.2 Volatile Fuel Prices |
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28 | (1) |
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2.2.3 Factors Other than Engine/Powertrain Affecting Fuel Consumption/GHG Emissions |
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29 | (3) |
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2.2.4 Complexity and Variety of Vehicle Types |
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32 | (1) |
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2.2.5 Large Versus Small Companies |
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33 | (1) |
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2.2.6 Life-Cycle Analysis of Vehicle/Fuel Systems |
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33 | (2) |
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2.2.7 Certification and Real-World Compliance |
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35 | (1) |
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2.2.8 Regulatory Baselines and Metrics |
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36 | (1) |
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2.2.9 Other Factors Affecting Fuel Efficiency |
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36 | (1) |
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2.3 Other Regulatory Programs |
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37 | (6) |
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2.3.1 Other Programs Directly Regulating MHDV Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions |
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37 | (1) |
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2.3.2 Other Regulatory Programs That Indirectly Affect Fuel Consumption and GHG Emissions |
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38 | (5) |
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43 | (3) |
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3 Certification, Compliance, and Enforcement |
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46 | (18) |
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46 | (1) |
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3.2 Summary of Certification Approaches in Phase I And Phase II Rules |
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46 | (3) |
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3.2.1 Heavy-Duty Combination Tractors |
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47 | (1) |
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3.2.2 Vocational Vehicles |
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48 | (1) |
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49 | (1) |
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3.3 Pre-market Certification |
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49 | (8) |
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49 | (2) |
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51 | (3) |
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3.3.3 Whole Vehicle Modeling |
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54 | (2) |
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56 | (1) |
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3.4 In-Use Compliance and Enforcement |
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57 | (6) |
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3.4.1 Need for In-Use Compliance and Enforcement |
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57 | (2) |
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3.4.2 Approaches to Determine In-Use Compliance for MHDVs |
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59 | (3) |
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3.4.3 Program Effectiveness |
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62 | (1) |
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3.4.4 Individual Vehicle Compliance |
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62 | (1) |
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63 | (1) |
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4 Powertrain Technologies |
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64 | (61) |
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64 | (1) |
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4.2 Market Trends in Engine Use |
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65 | (1) |
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4.3 Spark-Ignition Engines |
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65 | (6) |
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4.4 Compression-Ignition-Dominated Engines |
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71 | (6) |
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4.5 Kinetics-Dominated Combustion Engines |
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77 | (5) |
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4.6 Natural Gas Engine Update |
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82 | (2) |
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4.6.1 Comparing Diesel and Natural Gas Engines for Reduced NOx and GHG |
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83 | (1) |
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4.6.2 High-Pressure Direct-Injection Natural Gas Engines |
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84 | (1) |
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4.7 Alternative-Configuration Engines |
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84 | (4) |
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88 | (4) |
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88 | (1) |
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4.8.2 Application of Waste Heat Recovery in SuperTruck and 21st Century Truck Partnership |
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88 | (1) |
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4.8.3 Continued Development of Organic Rankine Cycle |
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89 | (1) |
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90 | (2) |
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4.9 Fuel Trends, GHG Impacts, and Infrastructure |
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92 | (17) |
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4.9.1 Introductory Comments |
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92 | (1) |
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4.9.2 Trends and Impacts from Petroleum Diesel Fuel Properties |
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92 | (1) |
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4.9.3 Biomass-Derived Diesel Fuels |
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92 | (2) |
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4.9.4 Trends and Impacts from Gasoline Fuel Properties |
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94 | (2) |
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96 | (13) |
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4.10 Transmission and Drivelines |
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109 | (8) |
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109 | (1) |
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4.10.2 New Product Developments |
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110 | (7) |
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4.11 Axles and Drivelines |
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117 | (1) |
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118 | (1) |
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119 | (6) |
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5 Technologies for Reducing the Power Demand of MHDVs |
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125 | (48) |
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125 | (3) |
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5.1.1 Base Case for Over-the-Road Tractor-Trailer, Circa 2013 Specifications |
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125 | (1) |
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5.1.2 Multiplicative Effect of Vehicle Power Demand Reduction on Engine Fuel Consumption |
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126 | (1) |
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5.1.3 Vehicle Power Demand Reduction Goals Established by 21CTP |
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126 | (1) |
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5.1.4 Technology Goal for Operational Efficiency and Intelligent Transportation Technologies Development and Deployment |
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127 | (1) |
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5.1.5 21 CTP Goal's Relation to U.S. Phase II Rule on GHGs and Fuel Consumption |
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127 | (1) |
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5.2 Aerodynamic Drag Reduction |
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128 | (10) |
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5.2.1 Baseline Aerodynamic Drag (CdA) |
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129 | (3) |
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132 | (1) |
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5.2.3 Aerodynamics Information from SuperTruck - |
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133 | (2) |
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5.2.4 Expect Continuing Advancements in Aerodynamics and Computational Fluid Dynamics Methods |
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135 | (3) |
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5.3 Tires and Rolling Resistance |
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138 | (14) |
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5.3.1 Introduction and Overview |
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138 | (6) |
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144 | (2) |
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146 | (2) |
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5.3.4 Next-Generation Wide-Based Single Tires |
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148 | (1) |
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5.3.5 Alternative Methods to Reduce Rolling Resistance |
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148 | (2) |
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150 | (1) |
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5.3.7 Future Developments |
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150 | (2) |
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152 | (7) |
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5.4.1 General Weight Characteristics of Medium and Heavy Vehicles |
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152 | (1) |
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5.4.2 Impacts of Vehicle Mass on Freight Efficiency |
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152 | (2) |
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5.4.3 Weight Impact in Hybrid Powertrain Vehicles |
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154 | (4) |
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5.4.4 Cost Effectiveness of Weight Reduction |
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158 | (1) |
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5.5 Axle and Drivetrain Losses |
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159 | (1) |
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160 | (3) |
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5.6.1 More Electric Truck |
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162 | (1) |
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5.6.2 Cummins Medium- and Heavy-Duty Accessory Hybridization Cooperative Research and Development Agreement |
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162 | (1) |
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5.6.3 SuperTruck Projects' Development Work on Auxiliaries and Accessories |
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163 | (1) |
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5.7 Annex: Description of Available SmartWay-Certified Trailer Packages |
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163 | (1) |
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5.8 Annex: Summary of SuperTruck Projects |
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164 | (5) |
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5.8.1 Cummins-Peterbilt Project |
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164 | (2) |
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166 | (1) |
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5.8.3 Volvo Group Project |
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167 | (1) |
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5.8.4 Navistar Inc. Project |
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168 | (1) |
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169 | (4) |
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6 Projected Benefits of Technologies on Fuel Consumption |
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173 | (28) |
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6.1 Impact of Engine Technologies on Vehicle Fuel Consumption |
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173 | (20) |
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6.1.1 References to Vehicle and Engine Fuel Consumption and C02 Targets from the EPA-NHTSA Phase I Rules and Phase II Rules for 2027 |
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174 | (4) |
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6.1.2 Description of Vehicles Simulated and Results |
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178 | (15) |
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6.2 Impact of Mass or Payload on Fuel Consumption Benefits of Different Engines |
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193 | (2) |
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6.3 Discussion of Engine Efficiencies over Drive Cycles |
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195 | (3) |
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6.4 Outlook for Combinations of Engine and Vehicle Improvements |
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198 | (2) |
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200 | (1) |
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7 Hybrid and Electric Powertrain Technologies |
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201 | (32) |
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201 | (19) |
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7.1.1 Hybrid Powertrains and Uses |
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201 | (1) |
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7.1.2 Hybrid Vehicle Architectures |
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202 | (18) |
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7.2 Differences Between Light-Duty and Heavy-Duty Hybrids |
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220 | (1) |
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7.3 Mapping Technologies to Duty Cycles |
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220 | (1) |
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7.4 Current Manufacturers and Product Ranges |
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221 | (1) |
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7.5 Advancements in Technology and Cost Reduction of Electric Motors and Power Electronics for Hybrid- and Battery Electric Vehicles |
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222 | (4) |
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7.6 Cost and Effectiveness of Hybrid and Electric Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles |
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226 | (4) |
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230 | (1) |
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231 | (2) |
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8 Battery Technology for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Hybrid and Electric Vehicles |
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233 | (26) |
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233 | (6) |
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8.1.1 Evolution of Automotive Battery Chemistries |
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233 | (1) |
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8.1.2 Breadth of Battery Systems Offered in Light-Duty Hybrid Vehicles |
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234 | (1) |
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8.1.3 Basic Working Principles of Li-Ion and Other Battery Chemistries |
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235 | (4) |
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8.2 Comparison of Different Lithium Battery Chemistries, Performance, and Applications |
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239 | (8) |
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8.2.1 Li-Ion Battery Physical Characteristics |
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243 | (2) |
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8.2.2 Commonly Used Terms Important in Battery Assessment |
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245 | (1) |
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8.2.3 Battery Pack Design Considerations |
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246 | (1) |
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8.3 Influence of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Usage on Battery Performance |
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247 | (6) |
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253 | (1) |
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253 | (5) |
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258 | (1) |
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9 Freight Operational Efficiency |
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259 | (11) |
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9.1 Methods to Improve Movement of Freight |
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259 | (1) |
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9.2 Methods to Reduce Deadheading |
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260 | (1) |
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9.3 Methods to Improve Driver-Vehicle Interaction |
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260 | (1) |
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9.4 Countervailing Forces to Fuel Consumption Reduction |
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261 | (1) |
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262 | (2) |
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9.5.1 Truck-Rail Intermodal Transport |
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262 | (1) |
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9.5.2 Truck-Truck Intermodal Transport |
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263 | (1) |
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9.5.3 Inland Waterway Transport |
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264 | (1) |
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264 | (1) |
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9.6 Size and Weight Changes (Vehicle-Miles-Traveled Reduction) |
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264 | (3) |
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9.6.1 International Comparison |
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265 | (1) |
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9.6.2 Longer Combination Vehicles |
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266 | (1) |
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9.7 Societal Value of Freight Efficiency Improvement |
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267 | (1) |
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268 | (2) |
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10 Intelligent Transportation Systems and Automation |
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270 | (7) |
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270 | (1) |
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10.2 Truck Parking Technology |
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270 | (1) |
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271 | (1) |
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10.4 Connected Vehicles/Cooperative-Intelligent Transportation Systems |
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272 | (3) |
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10.4.1 Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks |
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273 | (1) |
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10.4.2 Automated Vehicles |
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274 | (1) |
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10.5 Safety-Improving Technologies |
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275 | (1) |
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275 | (2) |
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11 Manufacturing Considerations |
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277 | (13) |
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277 | (1) |
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11.2 Advanced Manufacturing Technologies Considered |
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278 | (9) |
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11.2.1 Additive Manufacturing |
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278 | (5) |
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11.2.2 Joining Technologies |
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283 | (1) |
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11.2.3 Materials Technologies |
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284 | (2) |
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286 | (1) |
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287 | (1) |
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288 | (2) |
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290 | (33) |
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12.1 Estimates of Costs and Benefits |
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290 | (10) |
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290 | (1) |
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12.1.2 Agency Estimates of Costs and Benefits |
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290 | (2) |
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12.1.3 Identifying the Marginal Cost of Fuel Efficiency in 2027: Heavy-Duty Pickups and Vans (Classes 2b and 3) |
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292 | (1) |
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12.1.4 Identifying the Marginal Cost of Fuel Efficiency in 2027: Vocational Segments |
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292 | (2) |
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12.1.5 Estimating the Marginal Cost of Fuel Efficiency Improvements |
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294 | (6) |
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300 | (1) |
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12.2 The Benefits of Reduced Co2 Emissions |
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300 | (8) |
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12.2.1 Additional Environmental and Health Costs and Benefits from Different Fuel and Technology Strategies |
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304 | (1) |
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12.2.2 Costs and Benefits from Changes in Health and Environmental Impacts from Criteria Air Pollutants |
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304 | (4) |
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308 | (1) |
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308 | (1) |
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12.3 National Security Externalities |
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308 | (3) |
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308 | (1) |
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12.3.2 The Oil Security Premium |
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308 | (2) |
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12.3.3 Estimates of the Security Premium |
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310 | (1) |
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311 | (1) |
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311 | (1) |
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12.4 Projecting Total Capital Costs |
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311 | (8) |
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12.4.1 Indirect Cost Estimation |
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311 | (3) |
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314 | (1) |
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314 | (1) |
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12.4.4 Learning Effects on Capital Costs |
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315 | (4) |
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319 | (4) |
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13 Alternative and Complementary Regulatory Approaches |
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323 | (20) |
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13.1 Introduction: Why Consider Alternative Approaches |
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323 | (1) |
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13.2 Some General Principles for Regulation |
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324 | (3) |
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13.2.1 The Desirability of a Performance Standard |
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324 | (1) |
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13.2.2 The Clean Water Act: A Case Study of Diminishing Returns When Continuing to Adopt a Narrow Approach |
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325 | (2) |
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13.3 Unintended Consequences |
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327 | (3) |
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13.3.1 Narrow (Selective) Regulation |
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327 | (1) |
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13.3.2 Regulatory Transitions |
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328 | (1) |
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13.3.3 The Rebound Effect |
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329 | (1) |
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13.3.4 Other Unintended Consequences |
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330 | (1) |
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13.4 Using a Price Signal |
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330 | (5) |
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13.4.1 Raising the Fuel Price |
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331 | (4) |
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335 | (2) |
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13.6 Complementary Regulations |
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337 | (2) |
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13.6.1 Renewable Fuel Standard/Low Carbon Fuel Standard |
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337 | (1) |
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13.6.2 Other Complementary Regulations |
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338 | (1) |
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339 | (1) |
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339 | (4) |
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343 | (6) |
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B Disclosure of Conflicts of Interest |
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349 | (1) |
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350 | (6) |
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D Summary of Analysis of Engine and Vehicle Combinations |
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356 | (4) |
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E Description of Drive Cycles Used for Compliance |
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360 | (7) |
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F Summary of Committee's First Report |
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367 | (7) |
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G Acronyms and Abbreviations |
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374 | |