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E-grāmata: Russian Warfare in the 21st Century: An Incentive-Opportunity Intervention Model [Taylor & Francis e-book]

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This book provides a comprehensive analysis of Russia's foreign policy in gray zone conflicts, with a particular focus on its interventions in Ukraine.



This book provides a comprehensive analysis of Russia's foreign policy in gray zone conflicts, with a particular focus on its interventions in Ukraine.

Challenging conventional views, the book contends that Russia's use of varied gray zone tactics is influenced by both system-level incentives and domestic-level opportunities, which are integrated here into the Incentive-Opportunity Intervention (IOI) Model. The book examines case studies including Abkhazia, Crimea, Odesa, Kharkiv, and the Donbas, demonstrating how local ethnic-based movements and perceptions of regional retreat shape Moscow's coercive strategies. It highlights the reactive nature of Russia's tactics, driven by perceived threats to its protector role, and the significant role of ethnic and political dynamics in the region. The study underscores the importance of understanding these motivations for effective conflict resolution and suggests that protecting minority rights could mitigate such interventions. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for nuanced approaches that address both geopolitical and local dynamics. Ultimately, the book calls for future research to apply the IOI Model to other great powers, enhancing the generalizability and applicability of the findings, and highlights the potential for multilateral coordination in promoting minority rights as a strategy for conflict prevention.

This book will be of much interest to students and practitioners working on Russian foreign policy, international security, Eastern European politics and International Relations

Chapter 1: The Value of Combining System and Domestic Dimensions to
Explain Gray Zone Conflict Behavior
Chapter 2: Incentive-Opportunity
Intervention Model: Combining System Incentives and Domestic Costs of Gray
Zone Coercion
Chapter 3: Russias Campaign in Abkhazia: Assessing the High
Incentive and Opportunity for Gray Zone Coercion
Chapter 4: Russias Gray
Zone Engagement in Crimea: The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Deploying the Little
Green Men
Chapter 5: Russias Gray Zone Activities in Odesa: Assessing the
Low Incentive and Opportunity for Coercion
Chapter 6: Russias Gray Zone
Engagement in Kharkiv: Assessing the Low Incentive and Opportunity for
Coercion
Chapter 7: Russias Restrained Gray Zone Coercion in the Donbas: A
Function of Moderate Benefits and Uncertain Costs
Chapter 8: Russias
Militarized Campaign in Ukraine After 2022: A Continuation of an Old Pattern
Chapter 9: Conclusion
Dani Belo is an Assistant Professor of International Relations and Security and Director of the Global Policy Horizons Research Lab, Webster University in St. Louis, USA.