A summary of recent developments in sampling approaches to decision making through the perspectives of many of the leading researchers in the field. Readership includes students in psychology, philosophy, behavioral economics and finance, and organizational behavior.
Sampling approaches to judgment and decision making are distinct from traditional accounts in psychology and neuroscience. While these traditional accounts focus on limitations of the human mind as a major source of bounded rationality, the sampling approach originates in a broader cognitive-ecological perspective. It starts from the fundamental assumption that in order to understand intra-psychic cognitive processes one first has to understand the distributions of, and the biases built into, the environmental information that provides input to all cognitive processes. Both the biases and restriction, but also the assets and capacities, of the human mind often reflect, to a considerable degree, the irrational and rational features of the information environment and its manifestations in the literature, the Internet, and collective memory. Sampling approaches to judgment and decision making constitute a prime example of theory-driven research that promises to help behavioral scientists cope with the challenges of replicability and practical usefulness.
Recenzijas
'Inferences depend heavily on what information is sampled. With chapters by leading sampling researchers, this book provides a fascinating overview of the innovative work done on this topic over recent decades. Sample these chapters to gain insights into how our minds work.' Robin Hogarth, Barcelona School of Economics and Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain 'There has been a revolution in cognitive and social psychology. The conventional view on rationality, which locates the causes of poor choices and judgments in the human mind, is being replaced with the view that the properties of informational samples go a long way to explain the successes and the failures of rational and irrational thinkers alike. A massive fundamental attribution error, committed by psychological science, is thus being corrected. This masterly volume, edited by Fiedler, Juslin, and Denrell, is a progress report and a manifesto of hard-nosed scientific progress.' Joachim I. Krueger, Brown University, USA 'This book makes a compelling case that we can greatly enrich our understanding of human judgment and decision making if we focus on how we sample information from environments that often seem deliberately designed to confuse or mislead us.' Barbara Mellers, University of Pennsylvania, USA
Papildus informācija
An exploration of how statistical sampling principles impose theoretical constraints and enable novel insights on judgments and decisions.
1. The theoretical beauty and fertility of sampling approaches: a
historical and meta-theoretical review Klaus Fiedler, Peter Juslin and Jerker
Denrell;
2. Homo ordinalus and sampling models: the past, present, and future
decision by sampling Gordon D. A. Brown and Lukasz Walasek;
3. In decisions
from experience what you see is up to your sampling of the world Timothy J.
Pleskac and Ralph Hertwig;
4. The hot stove effect Jerker Denrell and Gaėl Le
Mens;
5. The J/DM separation paradox and the reliance on small samples
hypothesis Ido Erev and Ori Plonsky;
6. Sampling as preparedness in
evaluative learning Mandy Hütter and Zachary Adolph Niese;
7. The dog that
didn't bark: Bayesian approaches to reasoning Brett K. Hayes, Saoirse Connor
Desai, Keith Ransom and Charles Kemp;
8. Unpacking intuitive and analytica
memory sampling in multiple-cue judgment August Collsiöö, Joakim Sundh and
Peter Juslin;
9. Biased preferences through exploitation Chris Harris and
Ruud Custers;
10. Evaluative consequences of sampling distinct information
Hans Alves, Alex Koch, and Christian Unkelbach;
11. Information sampling in
contingency learning: sampling strategies and their consequences for
(pseudo-)contingency Franziska M. Bott and Thorsten Meiser;
12. The
collective hot stove effect Gaėl Le Mens, Balįzs Kovįc, Judith Avrahami, and
Yaakov Kareev;
13. Sequential decisions from sampling: inductive generation
of stopping decisions using instance-based learning theory Cleotilde Gonzales
and Palvi Aggarwal;
14. Thurstonian uncertainty in self-determined judgment
and decision making Johannes Prager, Klaus Fiedler, and Linda McCaughey;
15.
The information cost-benefit trade-off as a sampling problem in information
search Linda McCaughey, Johannes Prager, and Klaus Fiedler;
16. Heuristic
social sampling Thorsten Pachur and Christin Schulze;
17. Social sampling for
judgments and predictions of societal trends Henrik Olsson, Mirta Galesic and
Wändi Bruine de Bruin;
18. Group-motivated sampling: from skewed experiences
to biased evaluations Yrian Derreumaux, Robin Bergh, Marcus Lindskog and
Brent Hughes;
19. Opinion homogenization and polarization: three sampling
models Elizaveta Konovalova and Gaėl Le Mens;
20. An introduction to
psychologically plausible sampling schemes for approximating Bayesian
inference Jian-Qiao Zhu, Nick Chater, Pablo León-Villagrį, Jake Spicer,
Joakim Sundh and Adam Sanborn;
21. Approximating Bayesian inference through
internal sampling Joakim Sundh, Adam Sanborn, Jian-Qiao Zhu, Jake Spicer,
Pablo León-Villagrį and Nick Chater;
22. Sampling data, beliefs, and actions
Erik Brockbank, Cameron Holdaway, Daniel Acosta-Kane, and Edward Vul.
Klaus Fiedler is a Full Professor at Heidelberg University, Germany. He is a member of the German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina, and a recipient of several science awards. Currently, he is Chief Editor of Perspectives on Psychological Science. His recent research has concentrated on judgment and decision making from a cognitive-ecological perspective. Peter Juslin is Professor of Psychology at Uppsala University, Sweden, and a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. His research primarily concerns judgment and decision making. He has published extensively in prominent psychology journals on topics related to subjective probability judgment, overconfidence, multiple-cue judgment, and risky decision making. Jerker Denrell is Professor of Behavioral Science at Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, UK. He previously held positions at University of Oxford, UK and Stanford University, USA. His work focuses on how the biased experiences available to people lead to systematic biases in choices and judgment. He has published numerous articles in Science, PNAS, and Psychological Review.
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