The Reader's Guide to a Unique Book of Its Kind |
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xvii | |
References |
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xxiii | |
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Part I Sociophysics: Setting the Frame |
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1 What is Sociophysics About? |
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3 | (18) |
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1.1 Science Fiction and Asimov's Foundation Syndrome |
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3 | (2) |
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1.2 What Makes Sense and What Does Not with Asimov's Fictional Psychohistory |
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5 | (5) |
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1.2.1 Predicting the Future Is Not Possible |
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5 | (2) |
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1.2.2 Historical Vs. Ahistorical Sciences |
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7 | (1) |
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1.2.3 Small Groups, Large Groups, Not so Simple |
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8 | (1) |
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1.2.4 A Mathematician Could Not Have Done It, a Physicist Could, Maybe |
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9 | (1) |
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1.3 A Parenthesis on the Fall of Empires |
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10 | (1) |
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1.4 Time for New Paradigms |
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11 | (2) |
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1.5 Sociophysics, a Possible Novel Hard Science: Not a Zero Risk Path |
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13 | (3) |
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1.6 Discovering the Limits of Human Freedom Opens the path to Social Freedom |
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16 | (3) |
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19 | (2) |
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2 The Question: Do Humans Behave like Atoms? |
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21 | (20) |
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21 | (2) |
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2.2 Telling the Truth About What Indeed Physics Is and What It Is Not |
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23 | (4) |
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2.3 Physics Does Not Care About Mathematical Rigor |
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27 | (1) |
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2.4 Implementing a Physics-like Approach Outside Physics |
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28 | (1) |
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2.5 But Indeed, Do Humans Behave Like Atoms? |
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29 | (2) |
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2.6 Building Up an "Atom-Individual" Connection |
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31 | (3) |
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34 | (3) |
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37 | (2) |
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39 | (2) |
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3 Sociophysics: The Origins |
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41 | (28) |
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42 | (2) |
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3.1.1 Breaking the Secret of Critical Phenomena |
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42 | (1) |
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3.1.2 The Physicist's Corner |
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43 | (1) |
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3.2 The First Days, the First Fight |
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44 | (2) |
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3.3 From Claim to Demonstration |
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46 | (2) |
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3.4 The Story Behind the Scene |
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48 | (3) |
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3.5 More About Academic Freedom |
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51 | (1) |
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3.6 Surviving Within Physics by Not Playing Tennis |
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52 | (3) |
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3.7 Breaking the Gap with a Social Scientist |
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55 | (2) |
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3.8 Changing My Strategy: Back to the World of Physics |
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57 | (1) |
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3.9 The Secret One Shot International Seminar |
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58 | (1) |
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3.10 The Rising Sun of Sociophysics |
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58 | (2) |
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3.11 When Too Much Is Too much |
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60 | (1) |
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3.12 Claiming the Paternity of Sociophysics |
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61 | (2) |
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3.13 Reorientating My Strategy Again to Join a Social Sciences Group |
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63 | (3) |
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66 | (3) |
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4 Sociophysics: Weaknesses, Achievements, and Challenges |
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69 | (24) |
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4.1 The Essential Challenges of Sociophysics |
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69 | (1) |
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4.2 Sociophysics: A New Field Is Emerging |
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70 | (1) |
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4.3 Deciding the Future of Sociophysics |
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71 | (1) |
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4.4 Sociophysics: Epistemological Foundations |
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72 | (2) |
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4.5 Flashback to the Origins |
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74 | (1) |
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4.6 The Soviet-Like Rewriting of the History of Sociophysics |
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75 | (2) |
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4.7 Fatherhood with a Touch of Humor |
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77 | (2) |
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4.8 Basic Weaknesses of Growing Sociophysics |
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79 | (2) |
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4.9 The Positive Achievements of Sociophysics so Far |
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81 | (2) |
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4.10 The First Sociophysics Successful Prediction of a Precise Event |
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83 | (3) |
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4.10.1 Taking Risks to Validate Sociophysics |
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84 | (1) |
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4.10.2 When the Prediction Turns Out to be True |
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85 | (1) |
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4.10.3 When a Prediction Fails |
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86 | (1) |
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4.11 Proposal to Establish a Road Map |
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86 | (1) |
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4.12 What the Climatologists Did with the IPCC Should Not Be Repeated |
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87 | (1) |
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88 | (5) |
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Part II Discovering the Wonderful (and Maybe Scary) World of Sociophysics |
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5 Sociophysics: An Overview of Emblematic Founding Models |
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93 | (8) |
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95 | (2) |
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95 | (1) |
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5.1.2 Bottom-up Democratic Voting |
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96 | (1) |
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96 | (1) |
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5.1.4 Coalitions Versus Fragmentation |
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96 | (1) |
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97 | (1) |
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97 | (4) |
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6 Universal Features of Group Decision Making |
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101 | (20) |
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6.1 The Strike Phenomenon |
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101 | (5) |
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102 | (1) |
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6.1.2 The Operating Mechanism |
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102 | (2) |
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6.1.3 The Overlap with the Physical Model |
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104 | (1) |
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6.1.4 The Novel Counterintuitive Social Highlights |
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105 | (1) |
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6.1.5 Achievements of the Model |
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106 | (1) |
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6.2 How Do Groups Make Their Decisions? |
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106 | (13) |
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6.2.1 The Symmetrical Individual Versus the Symmetrical Group |
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107 | (1) |
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6.2.2 The Random Symmetry Breaking Choice |
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108 | (1) |
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6.2.3 Anticipating the Group Choice |
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109 | (2) |
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6.2.4 Individuals Are Often Not Symmetrical |
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111 | (2) |
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6.2.5 Life Is Not a Paradise |
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113 | (1) |
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6.2.6 Some Emblematic Illustrations of the Model |
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114 | (3) |
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117 | (1) |
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6.2.8 The Overlap with the Physical Model |
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118 | (1) |
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6.2.9 The Model's Achievements |
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118 | (1) |
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119 | (2) |
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7 The Dictatorship Paradox of Democratic Bottom-up Voting |
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121 | (18) |
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7.1 The Local Majority Rule Model |
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123 | (1) |
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7.2 Incorporating the Inertia Effect of Being the Ruler |
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123 | (2) |
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7.3 From Probabilistic to Deterministic Voting |
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125 | (1) |
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7.4 The Magic Formula for Presidency |
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126 | (1) |
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7.5 A Simulation to Visualize the Dictatorship Effect of Democratic Voting |
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127 | (2) |
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7.6 From Two to Three Competing Parties |
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129 | (3) |
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7.7 The Overlap with the Physical Model |
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132 | (3) |
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7.8 Achievements of the Model |
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135 | (2) |
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137 | (2) |
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8 The Dynamics of Spontaneous Coalition-Fragmentation Versus Global Coalitions |
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139 | (16) |
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8.1 The Two-Country Problem |
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139 | (3) |
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8.2 The Unstable Three-Country Problem |
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142 | (7) |
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8.3 Superposing Current Pair Bonds to Historical Ones |
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149 | (2) |
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8.4 From Binary to a Multiple Coalitions |
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151 | (1) |
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8.5 The Overlap with the Physical Model |
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152 | (1) |
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8.6 Achievements of the Model |
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153 | (1) |
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153 | (2) |
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9 Terrorism and the Percolation of Passive Supporters |
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155 | (14) |
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9.1 The Geometry of Terrorism |
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156 | (4) |
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9.2 Local Versus Global Terrorism: A Unified Frame |
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160 | (3) |
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163 | (2) |
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9.4 The Various Flags of a Terrorist Group |
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165 | (2) |
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9.5 The Overlap with the Physical Model |
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167 | (1) |
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9.6 Achievements of the Model |
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168 | (1) |
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168 | (1) |
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10 The Modeling of Opinion Dynamics |
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169 | (34) |
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169 | (2) |
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10.2 Why Is Public Opinion Often Conservative? |
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171 | (2) |
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10.3 The Local Majority Model and the Existence of Biases |
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173 | (11) |
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10.4 The Appearance of Nonthreshold Dynamics |
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184 | (1) |
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10.5 Mixing the Group Sizes |
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185 | (3) |
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10.6 Heterogeneous Agents and the Contrarian Effect |
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188 | (1) |
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10.7 Thresholdless Driven Coexistence |
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189 | (2) |
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10.8 The One-Sided Inflexible Effect and the Global Warming Issue |
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191 | (2) |
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10.9 The Thresholdless Case |
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193 | (2) |
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10.10 Extending the Competition to Three Opinions |
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195 | (1) |
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10.11 The Reshuffling Effect and Rare Event Nucleation |
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196 | (1) |
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10.12 The Overlap with Physical Systems and Other Sociophysics Models |
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197 | (1) |
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10.13 Achievements of the Model |
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198 | (1) |
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199 | (1) |
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200 | (3) |
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203 | (6) |
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Part III Democratic Voting in Bottom-Up Hierarchical Structures: From Advantages and Setbacks to Dictatorship Paradoxes |
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12 Highlights of the Part |
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209 | (14) |
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12.1 Dictatorships Can Be Democratic |
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209 | (1) |
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210 | (1) |
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12.3 The Wonderful World of Democracy |
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210 | (1) |
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12.4 Not Ruling Is Bad for You |
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211 | (1) |
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212 | (1) |
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213 | (1) |
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214 | (1) |
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12.8 Visualizing the Democratic-Driven Dictatorship Twist |
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215 | (1) |
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12.9 The Key Configurations to Infiltrate a Party |
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215 | (5) |
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12.10 Life Is More Risky with Three Competing Parties |
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220 | (1) |
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12.11 Eastern European Communist Collapse Was Not Sudden |
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220 | (1) |
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221 | (2) |
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13 Basic Mechanisms for the Perfect Democratic Structure |
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223 | (24) |
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13.1 Starting from a Naive View of Former Communist Organizations |
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223 | (2) |
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13.2 Setting Up the Simplest Form of a Voting Process |
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225 | (2) |
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13.3 The Single Random Small Group Voting Scheme |
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227 | (2) |
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13.4 Fluctuations, Group Sizes, and Democratic Balance |
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229 | (2) |
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13.5 Limits of the Single Group Voting Scheme |
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231 | (1) |
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13.6 Including Even-Sized Voting Groups |
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232 | (2) |
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13.7 Setting Up the Perfect Democratic Structure |
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234 | (6) |
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13.8 The Dynamics Driven by Repeated Democratic Voting |
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240 | (3) |
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13.9 Some Comments About Zero |
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243 | (4) |
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247 | (26) |
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14.1 The Practical Scheme |
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247 | (3) |
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14.2 The Physicist's Corner: Trying to Be a Little More Mathematical |
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250 | (6) |
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256 | (7) |
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14.4 What It Means in Terms of Global Size |
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263 | (1) |
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14.5 The Physicist's Corner: To Make It Simpler |
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264 | (4) |
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14.6 Putting a Limit on the Global Size |
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268 | (5) |
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15 Touching on a Fundamental Aspect of Nature, Both Physical and Human |
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273 | (24) |
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15.1 Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena |
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273 | (3) |
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15.2 Revisiting the Practical Scheme |
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276 | (1) |
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15.3 Revisiting the Magic Formula |
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277 | (2) |
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15.4 Rare Dictatorial Events Versus Antidemocratic Ones |
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279 | (5) |
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282 | (1) |
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15.4.2 The Physicist's Corner |
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283 | (1) |
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15.5 From Rare Antidemocratic Events to the Radical Efficiency of Geometric Nesting |
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284 | (6) |
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15.5.1 Monitoring the Rare Antidemocratic Bottom Configurations |
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284 | (2) |
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15.5.2 When the Radical Efficiency Turns Nasty |
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286 | (4) |
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15.6 More About Hierarchies |
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290 | (5) |
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15.6.1 Randomness Is Sufficient at the Bottom |
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290 | (1) |
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15.6.2 Geography and Multisize Combination of Voting Groups |
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291 | (3) |
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15.6.3 A Digression of About a Fifty Percent Score: What Is the Meaning of a Majority? |
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294 | (1) |
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295 | (2) |
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16 Dictatorship Paradoxes of Democratic Voting in Hierarchical Structures |
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297 | (82) |
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16.1 The Inertial Effect of Being in Power |
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297 | (3) |
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16.2 The Dramatic Effect of Tie Break Voting in the Single |
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300 | (2) |
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16.3 Varying the Voting Group Size |
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302 | (3) |
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16.4 From the Perfect Democratic Structure to the Perfect |
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305 | (7) |
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16.5 The Dynamics Driven by Repeated Democratic Voting |
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312 | (4) |
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16.5.1 The Physicist's Corner |
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313 | (3) |
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16.6 From the Magic to the Machiavelli Formula |
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316 | (7) |
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16.6.1 The Physicist's Corner |
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320 | (3) |
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16.7 Global Size, the Practical Scheme, the Magic Formula |
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323 | (16) |
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324 | (1) |
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16.7.2 The Practical Scheme |
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325 | (2) |
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16.7.3 The Physicist's Corner |
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327 | (3) |
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330 | (2) |
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16.7.5 The Physicist's Corner |
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332 | (4) |
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16.7.6 The Super Magic Formula |
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336 | (1) |
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16.7.7 The Physicist's Corner |
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337 | (2) |
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16.8 What Happens to the Rare Antidemocratic Events? |
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339 | (9) |
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16.8.1 The Minimum Number of Bottom Agents to Win the Presidency |
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341 | (5) |
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16.8.2 The Associated Number of Different Bottom Nasty Configurations |
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346 | (1) |
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16.8.3 The Actual Probability of a Nasty Bottom Configuration |
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347 | (1) |
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16.9 All Bottom Minorities and Majorities Winning the Presidency |
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348 | (19) |
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16.9.1 The Odd Case r = 3 |
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351 | (5) |
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16.9.2 The Even Case r = 4: The Challenging View Point |
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356 | (2) |
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16.9.3 The Even Case r = 4: The Running Power View Point |
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358 | (8) |
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16.9.4 The Physicist's Corner |
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366 | (1) |
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16.10 The Worrying Power of Geometric Nesting or How to Make Certain a Very Rare Event |
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367 | (3) |
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16.10.1 The Sudden and Unexpected Taking Over of Large Institutions |
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368 | (1) |
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16.10.2 The Scary Lobbying |
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368 | (1) |
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16.10.3 A Striking Idealized Illustration |
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369 | (1) |
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16.10.4 Hint to Restore the Democratic Functioning |
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369 | (1) |
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16.11 Softening the Inertia Principle |
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370 | (4) |
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16.11.1 The Physicist's Corner |
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373 | (1) |
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16.11.2 Three Competing Opinions: It Becomes Even More Counterintuitive |
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374 | (1) |
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16.12 Communist Collapse and French FN Victory |
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374 | (2) |
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16.12.1 Hierarchies Are Everywhere |
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375 | (1) |
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376 | (3) |
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Part IV The Risky Business of Alliances in Bottom-Up Democratic Voting with Three-Choice Competition |
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17 Bottom-Up Democratic Voting in a Three-Choice Competition |
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379 | (44) |
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17.1 Two Competing Parties in Short |
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380 | (10) |
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380 | (1) |
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17.1.2 Predicting the Results of Democratic Elections |
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380 | (2) |
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17.1.3 The Bottom-Up Voting Dynamics |
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382 | (4) |
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17.1.4 From Theoretical Principles to Reality |
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386 | (3) |
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17.1.5 From Reality to Implementation |
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389 | (1) |
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17.2 Three Competing Parties |
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390 | (14) |
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17.2.1 Two Competing Parties, a One-Dimensional Problem |
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391 | (2) |
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17.2.2 Three Competing Parties, a Two-Dimensional Problem |
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393 | (2) |
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17.2.3 The Three-Party Bottom-Up Voting Flow |
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395 | (7) |
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17.2.4 The Physicist's Corner |
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402 | (2) |
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17.3 The Bottom-Up Voting Flow Diagram |
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404 | (7) |
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17.3.1 The Frequent Case of Two Large Opposing Parties with a Small One in Between |
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406 | (3) |
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17.3.2 Some General (α, β, γ) Case Snapshots |
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409 | (2) |
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17.4 The "Golden Triangle" to Win the Presidency |
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411 | (2) |
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413 | (10) |
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18 So Sorry, That's the End of the Tour! |
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423 | (4) |
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427 | (2) |
Index |
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429 | |