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1 Statistical Tools for Program Evaluation: Introduction and Overview |
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1 | (14) |
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1.1 The Challenge of Program Evaluation |
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1 | (3) |
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1.2 Identifying the Context of the Program |
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4 | (2) |
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1.3 Ex ante Evaluation Methods |
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6 | (3) |
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9 | (2) |
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11 | (4) |
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12 | (3) |
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Part I Identifying the Context of the Program |
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2 Sampling and Construction of Variables |
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15 | (30) |
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2.1 A Step Not to Be Taken Lightly |
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15 | (1) |
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16 | (6) |
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2.3 Conception of the Questionnaire |
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22 | (5) |
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27 | (6) |
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33 | (12) |
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43 | (2) |
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3 Descriptive Statistics and Interval Estimation |
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45 | (44) |
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3.1 Types of Variables and Methods |
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45 | (2) |
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47 | (7) |
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3.3 Graphical Representations |
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54 | (10) |
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3.4 Measures of Central Tendency and Variability |
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64 | (5) |
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3.5 Describing the Shape of Distributions |
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69 | (8) |
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3.6 Computing Confidence Intervals |
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77 | (12) |
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87 | (2) |
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4 Measuring and Visualizing Associations |
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89 | (48) |
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4.1 Identifying Relationships Between Variables |
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89 | (3) |
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4.2 Testing for Correlation |
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92 | (7) |
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4.3 Chi-Square Test of Independence |
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99 | (6) |
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4.4 Tests of Difference Between Means |
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105 | (8) |
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4.5 Principal Component Analysis |
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113 | (13) |
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4.6 Multiple Correspondence Analysis |
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126 | (11) |
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135 | (2) |
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137 | (52) |
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5.1 Understanding the Basic Regression Model |
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137 | (10) |
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5.2 Multiple Regression Analysis |
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147 | (6) |
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5.3 Assumptions Underlying the Method of OLS |
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153 | (3) |
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5.4 Choice of Relevant Variables |
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156 | (8) |
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5.5 Functional Forms of Regression Models |
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164 | (3) |
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5.6 Detection and Correction of Estimation Biases |
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167 | (7) |
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5.7 Model Selection and Analysis of Regression Results |
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174 | (6) |
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5.8 Models for Binary Outcomes |
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180 | (9) |
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187 | (2) |
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6 Estimation of Welfare Changes |
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189 | (46) |
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6.1 Valuing the Consequences of a Project |
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189 | (2) |
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191 | (9) |
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6.3 Discrete Choice Experiment |
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200 | (11) |
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211 | (5) |
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216 | (5) |
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6.6 Health-Related Quality of Life |
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221 | (14) |
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230 | (5) |
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Part II Ex ante Evaluation |
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235 | (34) |
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7.1 Methodology of Financial Appraisal |
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235 | (3) |
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238 | (6) |
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7.3 Cash Flows and Sustainability |
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244 | (5) |
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7.4 Profitability Analysis |
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249 | (6) |
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7.5 Real Versus Nominal Values |
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255 | (2) |
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7.6 Ranking Investment Strategies |
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257 | (6) |
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263 | (6) |
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266 | (3) |
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269 | (22) |
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8.1 Introducing a New Intervention Amongst Existing Ones |
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269 | (2) |
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271 | (4) |
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8.3 Budget Impact in a Multiple-Supply Setting |
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275 | (2) |
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277 | (4) |
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8.5 Sensitivity Analysis with Visual Basic |
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281 | (10) |
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288 | (3) |
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291 | (34) |
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9.1 Rationale for Cost Benefit Analysis |
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291 | (3) |
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9.2 Conceptual Foundations |
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294 | (5) |
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9.3 Discount of Benefits and Costs |
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299 | (7) |
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9.4 Accounting for Market Distortions |
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306 | (5) |
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9.5 Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis |
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311 | (2) |
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9.6 Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis |
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313 | (8) |
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9.7 Mean-Variance Analysis |
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321 | (4) |
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324 | (1) |
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10 Cost Effectiveness Analysis |
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325 | (60) |
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10.1 Appraisal of Projects with Non-monetary Outcomes |
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325 | (3) |
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10.2 Cost Effectiveness Indicators |
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328 | (8) |
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10.3 The Efficiency Frontier Approach |
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336 | (6) |
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10.4 Decision Analytic Modeling |
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342 | (9) |
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10.5 Numerical Implementation in R-CRAN |
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351 | (6) |
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357 | (1) |
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10.7 Uncertainty and Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis |
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358 | (13) |
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10.8 Analyzing Simulation Outputs |
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371 | (14) |
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382 | (3) |
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11 Multi-criteria Decision Analysis |
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385 | (34) |
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11.1 Key Concepts and Steps |
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385 | (3) |
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388 | (2) |
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11.3 Assessing Performance Levels with Scoring |
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390 | (5) |
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395 | (3) |
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11.5 Construction of a Composite Indicator |
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398 | (3) |
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11.6 Non-Compensatory Analysis |
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401 | (9) |
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11.7 Examination of Results |
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410 | (9) |
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416 | (3) |
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Part III Ex post Evaluation |
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12 Project Follow-Up by Benchmarking |
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419 | (24) |
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12.1 Cost Comparisons to a Reference |
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419 | (4) |
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12.2 Cost Accounting Framework |
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423 | (3) |
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12.3 Effects of Demand Structure and Production Structure on Cost |
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426 | (7) |
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12.4 Production Structure Effect: Service-Oriented Approach |
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433 | (3) |
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12.5 Production Structure Effect: Input-Oriented Approach |
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436 | (4) |
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12.6 Ranking Through Benchmarking |
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440 | (3) |
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441 | (2) |
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13 Randomized Controlled Experiments |
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443 | (46) |
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13.1 From Clinical Trials to Field Experiments |
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443 | (5) |
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13.2 Random Allocation of Subjects |
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448 | (5) |
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13.3 Statistical Significance of a Treatment Effect |
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453 | (10) |
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13.4 Clinical Significance and Statistical Power |
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463 | (8) |
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13.5 Sample Size Calculations |
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471 | (3) |
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13.6 Indicators of Policy Effects |
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474 | (6) |
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13.7 Survival Analysis with Censoring: The Kaplan-Meier Approach |
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480 | (3) |
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13.8 Mantel-Haenszel Test for Conditional Independence |
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483 | (6) |
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487 | (2) |
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489 | |
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14.1 The Rationale for Counterfactual Analysis |
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489 | (3) |
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14.2 Difference-in-Differences |
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492 | (6) |
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14.3 Propensity Score Matching |
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498 | (14) |
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14.4 Regression Discontinuity Design |
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512 | (7) |
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14.5 Instrumental Variable Estimation |
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519 | |
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530 | |