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E-grāmata: Statistics for Public Policy: A Practical Guide to Being Mostly Right (or at Least Respectably Wrong)

4.35/5 (26 ratings by Goodreads)
  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 16-Jan-2024
  • Izdevniecība: University of Chicago Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780226830742
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  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 16-Jan-2024
  • Izdevniecība: University of Chicago Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780226830742
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"A highly overdue guide to making policy work, quantitatively. In the creation of public policy, statistics are both an essential tool and a frequent antagonist. Statistics for Public Policy is a short, prose-forward crash course in wielding these unrulytools for maximum impact and clarity in the making and evaluating of public policies. Former White House economist Jeremy Weber offers an accessible voice of experience and empathy for the challenges of this work, with particular focus on six core practices: Thinking big-picture about statistical analysis-where it's helpful, where it's irrelevant, and where can be decisive Critically engaging with data, with particular focus on its origins, purpose, and generalizability-not necessarily whether it is representative Understanding the strengths and limits of the simple statistical methods that dominate most policy discussions Recognizing the limits of statistical significance and effect size-and the surprising power of using the right adjectives and knowingyour audience Distinguishing correlation from causation (and in doing so, avoiding the traps of phantom problems-or applying phony solutions to real problems) Maintaining credibility by being right or at least respectfully wrong in every setting Brief, accessible, and deeply practical, Weber offers an essential resource for all students and professionals working at the intersections of data and policy interventions. Statistics for Public Policy dispenses with the opacity and technical language that have long made other books in this space impenetrable. This book is all signal, no noise"--

A long-overdue guide on how to use statistics to bring clarity, not confusion, to policy work.

Statistics are an essential tool for making, evaluating, and improving public policy. Statistics for Public Policy is a crash course in wielding these unruly tools to bring maximum clarity to policy work. Former White House economist Jeremy G. Weber offers an accessible voice of experience for the challenges of this work, focusing on seven core practices: 

  • Thinking big-picture about the role of data in decisions
  • Critically engaging with data by focusing on its origins, purpose, and generalizability
  • Understanding the strengths and limits of the simple statistics that dominate most policy discussions
  • Developing reasons for considering a number to be practically small or large  
  • Distinguishing correlation from causation and minor causes from major causes
  • Communicating statistics so that they are seen, understood, and believed
  • Maintaining credibility by being right (or at least respectably wrong) in every setting
Statistics for Public Policy dispenses with the opacity and technical language that have long made this space impenetrable; instead, Weber offers an essential resource for all students and professionals working at the intersections of data and policy interventions. This book is all signal, no noise.

Recenzijas

"[ Statistics for Public Policy] discusses principles for using statistics to further the understanding of people making decisions, highlighting the importance of integrating statistical knowledge with knowledge of the particulars of a context and issue and of recognizing that statistical standards taught and used in academic settings may not apply in policy settings." * Journal of Economic Literature * "Weber has written a book that many policy analysts should read. Certainly it will help those with little statistics (and less mathematics), but it should also provoke those already confident in their data skills to think a bit harder about what they are doing." * Economic Record * Our statistical textsand often our teachingignore the craft that makes quantitative evidence useful for policy makers. In Statistics for Public Policy, Weber draws on his own experience to address the nitty-gritty issues that advisors confront in honestly and effectively interpreting and presenting evidence. -- David L. Weimer | University of Wisconsin-Madison The best public policy advisers know how to blend statistical knowledge with an understanding of the context of issues. Weber uses his experience as a White House economist to explain how analysts can make sense of messy real-world data and maintain their credibility even if their numbers turn out to be wrong. Accessible and engaging, Statistics for Public Policy presents practical tips to improve the use of statistics and data in the policy world. -- Eric M. Patashnik | coauthor of "A Practical Guide for Policy Analysis: The Eightfold Path to More Effective Problem Solving" An easily digestible and humorous must-read, Statistics for Public Policy takes a fairly dry subjectbut one of utmost importanceand infuses it with real world examples that bring statistics alive for the reader. As someone on the receiving end of many a policy memo, I can say with certainty that every would-be wonk could benefit from this book." -- DJ Nordquist | former Chief of Staff, White House Council of Economic Advisers

Preface
1. The Big Picture
2. Know Your Sample and Data
3. Know Simple Statistics and Their Power
4. Know What It Means to Account for Potholes
5. Know Large from Small and Explain the Difference
6. Think Hard about Causality
7. Show That Youve Been to Table School
8. Know How to Be Mostly Right (or at Least Respectfully Wrong)
9. Fail the Test? A Case Study in Using Statistics for Policy
Acknowledgments
Notes
Bibliography
Index
Jeremy G. Weber is professor in the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. He previously served as a chief economist for the White House Council of Economic Advisers.