Preface |
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xiii | |
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1 Introduction to Obsolescence Problems |
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1 | (16) |
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1.1 Definition of Obsolescence |
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1 | (2) |
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1.2 Categorization of Obsolescence Types |
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3 | (1) |
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1.3 Definition of Obsolescence Management |
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4 | (1) |
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1.4 Categorization of Obsolescence Management Approaches |
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5 | (1) |
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1.5 Historical Perspective on Obsolescence |
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6 | (2) |
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1.6 Occurrence of Obsolescence |
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8 | (3) |
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1.6.1 Technological Evolution |
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8 | (1) |
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1.6.2 Technological Revolutions |
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8 | (1) |
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8 | (1) |
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1.6.4 Environmental Policies and Restrictions |
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8 | (1) |
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9 | (2) |
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1.6.6 Planned Obsolescence |
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11 | (1) |
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1.7 Product Sectors Affected by Obsolescence Problems |
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11 | (2) |
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1.8 Parts Affected by Obsolescence Problems |
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13 | (4) |
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1.8.1 Electronic Part Obsolescence |
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13 | (2) |
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1.8.2 Software Obsolescence |
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15 | (1) |
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1.8.3 Textile and Mechanical Part Obsolescence |
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16 | (1) |
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2 Part Change and Discontinuation Management |
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17 | (16) |
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18 | (1) |
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2.2 Change-Control Policies of Major Part Manufacturers |
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18 | (1) |
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2.3 Change-Notification Policies of Major Companies |
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19 | (5) |
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2.3.1 Differences by Manufacturer |
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19 | (2) |
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2.3.2 Differences by Division or Manufacturing Location |
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21 | (1) |
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2.3.3 Differences by Customer Type |
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22 | (1) |
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2.3.4 Differences by Geographical Location |
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22 | (1) |
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23 | (1) |
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2.3.6 Contract Manufacturers |
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23 | (1) |
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24 | (3) |
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2.4.1 Industry Standard Process Change-Notification |
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24 | (1) |
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2.4.1.1 Electronic Industries Alliance |
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25 | (2) |
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27 | (1) |
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2.5 Change-Notification Paths |
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27 | (2) |
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2.5.1 Direct to Equipment Manufacturers |
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28 | (1) |
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28 | (1) |
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2.5.3 Via Contract Manufacturers |
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29 | (1) |
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2.5.4 Via Independent Services |
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29 | (1) |
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2.6 Examples of Common Changes |
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29 | (4) |
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2.6.1 Fabrication Changes |
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30 | (1) |
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30 | (1) |
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2.6.3 Changes to Assembly/Test Locations |
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31 | (1) |
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2.6.4 Changes to Assembly Materials |
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31 | (1) |
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2.6.5 Packing, Marking, and Shipping Changes |
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32 | (1) |
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3 Introduction to Electronic Part Product Life Cycles |
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33 | (8) |
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3.1 Product Life Cycle Stages |
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34 | (5) |
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36 | (1) |
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36 | (2) |
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38 | (1) |
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38 | (1) |
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38 | (1) |
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3.1.6 Discontinuance and Obsolescence |
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39 | (1) |
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3.2 Special Cases of the Product Life Cycle Curve |
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39 | (1) |
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3.3 Product Life Cycle Stages as a Basis for Forecasting |
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40 | (1) |
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4 Obsolescence Forecasting Methodologies |
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41 | (36) |
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4.1 Obsolescence Forecasting-Parts with Evolutionary Parametric Drivers |
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42 | (14) |
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4.1.1 Basic Life Cycle Curve Forecasting Method |
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42 | (1) |
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4.1.1.1 Step 1: Identify Part/Technology Group |
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42 | (2) |
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4.1.1.2 Step 2: Identify the Part's Primary and Secondary Attributes |
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44 | (2) |
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4.1.1.3 Step 3: Obtain Sales Data Associated with the Primary Attribute |
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46 | (1) |
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4.1.1.4 Step 4: Construct the Life Cycle Curve and Determine Parameters |
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46 | (1) |
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4.1.1.5 Step 5: Determine the Zone of Obsolescence |
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47 | (1) |
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4.1.1.6 Step 6: Modify the Zone of Obsolescence |
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48 | (2) |
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50 | (1) |
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4.1.2 Advanced Life Cycle Curve Method |
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51 | (1) |
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4.1.2.1 Determining the Window of Obsolescence via Data Mining |
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52 | (2) |
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4.1.2.2 Application of Data Mining Determined Windows of Obsolescence to Memory Modules |
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54 | (2) |
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4.2 Obsolescence Forecasting-Parts without Evolutionary Parametric Drivers |
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56 | (14) |
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4.2.1 Procurement Lifetime |
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56 | (1) |
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4.2.2 Electronic Part Introduction Date and Obsolescence Date Data |
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57 | (1) |
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4.2.3 Determining Mean Procurement Lifetimes |
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58 | (5) |
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4.2.4 An Interpretation of Procurement Lifetime and Worst-Case Forecasts |
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63 | (3) |
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4.2.5 Part Type Specific Results |
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66 | (3) |
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4.2.6 Discussion and Conclusions |
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69 | (1) |
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4.3 Non-Database Obsolescence Forecasting Methodology |
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70 | (7) |
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4.3.1 Forecasting Process |
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70 | (1) |
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4.3.2 Step 1: Identify Part/Technology Group |
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70 | (1) |
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4.3.3 Step 2: Obtain Forecasting Data |
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71 | (2) |
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4.3.4 Step 3: Estimated EOL Date and Risk of Obsolescence |
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73 | (2) |
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4.3.5 ERP System Modification |
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75 | (1) |
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4.3.6 Discussion and Conclusion |
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76 | (1) |
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5 Case Study Hardware Forecasts and Trends |
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77 | (66) |
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77 | (7) |
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78 | (1) |
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5.1.2 Market and Technology Trends |
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78 | (3) |
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5.1.3 Application of the Forecasting Methodology |
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81 | (2) |
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5.1.4 Discussion of DRAM Forecasts |
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83 | (1) |
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5.2 Static Random Access Memories (SRAMs) |
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84 | (10) |
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85 | (1) |
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86 | (2) |
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5.2.3 Application of the Forecasting Methodology |
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88 | (3) |
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5.2.4 Discussion of SRAM Forecasts |
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91 | (3) |
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5.3 Non-Volatile Memories |
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94 | (11) |
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5.3.1 Types of Non-Volatile Memories |
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95 | (1) |
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95 | (1) |
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96 | (1) |
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5.3.2 The Non-Volatile Memory Market |
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97 | (1) |
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5.3.3 Application of the Life Cycle Forecasting Methodology |
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98 | (3) |
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5.3.4 Determining the Zone of Obsolescence |
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101 | (2) |
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5.3.5 Discussion of Non-Volatile Memory Forecasts |
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103 | (2) |
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105 | (10) |
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5.4.1 Types of Microprocessors |
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107 | (1) |
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5.4.2 The Microprocessor Market |
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107 | (1) |
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5.4.3 Application of Forecasting Methodology |
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108 | (5) |
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5.4.4 Determining the Zone of Obsolescence |
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113 | (1) |
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5.4.5 Discussion of Microprocessor Forecasts |
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113 | (2) |
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5.5 Microcontrollers and Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) |
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115 | (5) |
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5.5.1 Type of Microcontrollers |
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115 | (1) |
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5.5.1.1 Embedded Microcontrollers |
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116 | (1) |
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5.5.1.2 External Memory Microcontrollers |
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116 | (1) |
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5.5.2 The Microcontroller Market |
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116 | (2) |
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5.5.3 Overview of Digital Signal Processors |
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118 | (1) |
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5.5.4 Application of the Life Cycle Forecasting Methodology |
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118 | (1) |
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5.5.5 Determining the Zone of Obsolescence |
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119 | (1) |
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5.5.6 Discussion of Microcontroller and DSP Forecasts |
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120 | (1) |
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120 | (9) |
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5.6.1 Types of Logic Parts |
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120 | (6) |
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5.6.2 The Logic Part Market |
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126 | (1) |
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5.6.3 Application of Forecasting Methodology |
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126 | (2) |
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5.6.4 Discussion of Logic Part Forecasts |
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128 | (1) |
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129 | (7) |
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5.7.1 Types of Analog Parts |
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130 | (1) |
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5.7.2 The Analog Part Market |
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130 | (1) |
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5.7.3 Application of Forecasting Methodology |
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131 | (2) |
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5.7.4 Determining the Zone of Obsolescence |
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133 | (2) |
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5.7.5 Discussion of Analog Forecasts |
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135 | (1) |
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5.8 Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) |
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136 | (7) |
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136 | (1) |
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5.8.1.1 Full-Custom ASICs |
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137 | (1) |
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5.8.1.2 Semi-Custom ASICs |
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137 | (1) |
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5.8.1.3 Programmable Logic Devices |
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138 | (1) |
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139 | (1) |
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5.8.3 Application of Life Cycle Forecasting Methodology |
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139 | (1) |
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5.8.4 Discussion of ASIC Forecasts |
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140 | (3) |
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143 | (14) |
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6.1 The Root Causes of Software Obsolescence |
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145 | (1) |
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6.2 Software Obsolescence Mechanisms |
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146 | (9) |
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6.2.1 Software Purchasing Obsolescence Mechanism |
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148 | (1) |
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6.2.2 Software Support Obsolescence Mechanism |
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149 | (2) |
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6.2.3 Software Compatibility Obsolescence Mechanism |
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151 | (2) |
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6.2.4 Software Infrastructure Obsolescence Mechanism |
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153 | (1) |
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6.2.5 Software Distribution Obsolescence Mechanism |
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154 | (1) |
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155 | (2) |
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7 Reactive Obsolescence Management |
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157 | (36) |
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7.1 Change and Discontinuance Notifications |
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158 | (2) |
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7.2 Obsolescence Recovery (Mitigation) Tactics |
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160 | (26) |
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7.2.1 Negotiating with the Manufacturer |
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162 | (1) |
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162 | (1) |
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163 | (1) |
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163 | (1) |
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164 | (2) |
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166 | (2) |
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7.2.7 Aftermarket Sources |
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168 | (6) |
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174 | (3) |
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177 | (3) |
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7.2.10 Reverse-Engineering |
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180 | (1) |
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7.2.11 Lifetime Buys/Bridge Buys |
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181 | (5) |
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7.3 Selecting the Proper Reactive Obsolescence Management Strategy |
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186 | (2) |
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7.3.1 Part Discontinuance Status |
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186 | (1) |
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7.3.2 Degree of Life Cycle Mismatch |
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186 | (1) |
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7.3.3 Number of Products Using the Obsolete Part |
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186 | (1) |
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187 | (1) |
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187 | (1) |
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7.3.6 Number of Obsolete Parts in a System |
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187 | (1) |
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187 | (1) |
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7.3.8 Turnaround Time Available for Resolution |
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188 | (1) |
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7.3.9 Requalification Requirements |
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188 | (1) |
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7.4 Reactive Obsolescence Management Checklist |
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188 | (1) |
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7.5 Reactive Obsolescence Management Guideline |
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188 | (5) |
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8 Proactive Obsolescence Management |
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193 | (6) |
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8.1 Members of the Proactive Obsolescence Management Board |
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194 | (1) |
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8.2 Schedule and Milestones |
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194 | (1) |
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8.3 Initial Obsolescence Risk Analysis |
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195 | (2) |
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195 | (1) |
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8.3.2 Material Risk Index |
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196 | (1) |
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196 | (1) |
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8.4 Tracking Parts' Availability |
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197 | (1) |
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8.5 Product Obsolescence and Aftersales |
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197 | (2) |
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9 Strategic Obsolescence Management |
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199 | (34) |
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9.1 Applying Project Management Principles to Obsolescence Management |
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200 | (2) |
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202 | (3) |
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202 | (2) |
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204 | (1) |
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9.3 Planning and Design Stage |
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205 | (5) |
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9.3.1 Design Products to Avoid Obsolescence |
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205 | (1) |
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206 | (1) |
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9.3.2.1 Ishikawa/Fishbone Diagram |
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206 | (1) |
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9.3.2.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) |
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206 | (2) |
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9.3.2.3 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) |
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208 | (2) |
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210 | (15) |
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9.4.1 Forecasting the Product Life Cycle |
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210 | (1) |
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9.4.2 Parts Selection Process |
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210 | (2) |
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9.4.3 Demand Specification |
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212 | (1) |
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9.4.4 Supplier Management |
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213 | (1) |
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9.4.5 Contractual Language |
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214 | (2) |
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9.4.6 Special Obsolescence Management Capabilities |
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216 | (1) |
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9.4.7 Streamlining Regulatory Procedures |
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216 | (1) |
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9.4.8 Management above the Piece-Part Level |
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217 | (1) |
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9.4.9 Design Refresh Planning Optimization |
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217 | (1) |
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9.4.9.1 Porter Model for Refresh Planning |
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218 | (2) |
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9.4.9.2 The MOCA Refresh Planning Model |
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220 | (2) |
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9.4.9.3 Material Risk Index (MRI) Model |
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222 | (1) |
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223 | (1) |
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9.4.11 Hardware-Software Independence |
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224 | (1) |
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9.4.12 Responsibilities of Customers and End Users |
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224 | (1) |
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9.5 Monitoring and Controlling Stage |
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225 | (4) |
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9.5.1 Economics of Obsolescence Management Strategies |
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225 | (2) |
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9.5.2 Cost Variations at the Part or Component Level |
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227 | (1) |
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9.5.3 Cost Variations at the System or Module Level |
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227 | (1) |
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9.5.4 Cost Variations due to Economic Policy Factors |
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228 | (1) |
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9.5.5 Cost-Benefit Analysis |
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228 | (1) |
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9.6 Strategic Obsolescence Management Guidelines |
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229 | (4) |
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10 Obsolescence Management Standards and Organizations |
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233 | (12) |
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10.1 Helpful Standards for Obsolescence Management |
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233 | (4) |
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10.1.1 Defense Standardization Program Office (SD-22) |
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234 | (1) |
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10.1.2 Electronic Industries Alliance (EIA) |
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234 | (1) |
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10.1.3 Joint Electron Device Engineering Council (JEDEC) |
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235 | (1) |
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10.1.4 International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) |
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235 | (1) |
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10.1.5 DIN Deutsches Institut fur Normung e.V. |
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236 | (1) |
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10.1.6 British Standards Institution (BSI) |
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236 | (1) |
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10.1.7 STACK International |
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236 | (1) |
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10.1.8 Electronics Industry Quality Conference (EIQC) |
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236 | (1) |
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10.1.9 Airlines Electronic Engineering Committee (AEEC) |
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237 | (1) |
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10.1.10 VMEbus International Trade Association (VITA) |
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237 | (1) |
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10.2 Helpful Organizations for Obsolescence Management |
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237 | (8) |
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10.2.1 U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) |
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237 | (3) |
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10.2.2 Government Industry Data Exchange Program (GIDEP) |
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240 | (1) |
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10.2.3 Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) |
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240 | (1) |
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10.2.4 Defense Microelectronics Activity (DMEA) |
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240 | (1) |
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10.2.5 UK Ministry of Defence (UK MoD) |
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241 | (1) |
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10.2.6 Component Obsolescence Group (COG) |
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242 | (1) |
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10.2.7 University of Maryland---CALCE |
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243 | (1) |
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10.2.8 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) |
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243 | (2) |
References |
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245 | (22) |
Index |
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267 | |