Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction provides the latest thinking from experts in the fields of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. This fully updated second edition comprehensively covers the sources of S2S predictability, S2S modeling, and forecasting using dynamical or machine learning methods, and S2S applications. There are brand new chapters on the role of the ocean in sub-seasonal predictability, machine learning in S2S prediction, co-produced S2S climate services in Africa, S2S for energy, and marine weather prediction on S2S timescales. This valuable resource offers atmospheric and climate scientists the very latest developments in this rapidly evolving field.
Part I: Setting the scene
1. Introduction: Why S2S?
2. Weather forecasting: What sets the forecast horizon?
3. Weather within Climate: Sub-seasonal predictability of tropical daily
rainfall characteristics
Part II: Sources of S2S Predictability
4. The Madden-Julian Oscillation
5. Extratropical sub-seasonaltoseasonal oscillations and multiple regimes:
The dynamical systems view
6. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections
7. Land surface processes relevant to S2S prediction
8. Role of ocean in sub-seasonal predictability
9. The role of sea ice in sub-seasonal predictability
10. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere
Part III: S2S Modeling and Forecasting
11. Forecast system design, configuration, complexity
12. Ensemble generation: the TIGGE and S2S ensembles
13. Forecast recalibration and multi-model combination
14. Forecast verification for S2S time scales
15. Machine learning S2S prediction
Part IV: S2S Applications
16. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes
17. Communication and dissemination of forecasts and engaging user
communities
18. Seamless prediction of monsoon onset and active/break phases
19. Predicting climate impacts on health at sub-seasonal to seasonal
timescales
20. Co-produced S2S Climate Services in Africa
21. S2S for Energy
22. Marine weather prediction on S2S timescales
23. Epilogue
Dr Andrew Robertson is a Senior Research Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He heads the IRI Climate Group and teaches as an adjunct professor at Columbia. Graduating with a PhD in atmospheric dynamics, he has over 30 years of experience in topics ranging from midlatitude meteorology, coupled ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting, downscaling, and tailoring of climate information for use in conjunction with sectoral models for climate adaptation and risk management. He has taught in capacity building training courses around the world. Frédéric Vitart is a Senior Research Scientist at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). After graduating with a PhD in atmospheric and oceanic sciences from Princeton University, he joined ECMWF in 1998, where he leads the research on ensemble sub-seasonal forecasts. He has over 20 years of experience in sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction, couple ocean-atmosphere modeling, tropical and mid-latitude meteorology, tropical cyclone prediction. He is the author of over 100 publications in the peer-review literature and has taught in several training courses around the world.
