Preface |
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xi | |
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1 Climate Change in the Public Sphere |
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3 | (21) |
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1.1 Communicating about climate change |
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6 | (6) |
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1.2 The state of the science |
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12 | (2) |
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1.3 Responding to climate change: Mitigation and adaptation |
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14 | (1) |
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1.4 A brief history of climate change policy |
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14 | (7) |
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1.4.1 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol |
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17 | (2) |
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1.4.2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
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19 | (2) |
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1.5 The scale of the challenge: Accelerating action on climate change |
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21 | (1) |
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22 | (2) |
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24 | (34) |
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26 | (12) |
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2.1.1 System parts and interactions |
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27 | (1) |
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28 | (4) |
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32 | (4) |
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36 | (1) |
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2.1.5 Function or purpose |
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37 | (1) |
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2.2 Earth's climate system: The parts and interconnections |
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38 | (19) |
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2.2.1 Atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and anthroposphere |
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38 | (1) |
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39 | (2) |
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41 | (3) |
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44 | (3) |
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47 | (2) |
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2.2.1.5 The anthroposphere |
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49 | (2) |
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2.2.2 The ins and outs of Earth's energy budget |
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51 | (1) |
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2.2.2.1 Does what comes in go out? |
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52 | (3) |
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2.2.2.2 Climate sensitivity: How much bang for your buck? |
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55 | (2) |
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2.3 Integrating systems, science, and policy |
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57 | (1) |
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3 Climate Controls: Energy from the Sun |
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58 | (27) |
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3.1 Incoming solar radiation |
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60 | (8) |
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3.1.1 Blackbody radiation: The Sun versus Earth |
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60 | (7) |
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3.1.2 Our place in space: The Goldilocks planet |
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67 | (1) |
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68 | (14) |
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3.2.1 4.5 billion years of solar energy |
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69 | (1) |
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3.2.2 Orbital controls: Baseline variability in the past few million years |
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70 | (3) |
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3.2.2.1 Eccentricity: The shape of Earth's orbital path |
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73 | (2) |
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75 | (1) |
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3.2.2.3 Precession of the equinoxes |
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76 | (1) |
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3.2.2.4 The link to ice age cycles |
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77 | (2) |
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3.2.3 Sunspots: How important? |
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79 | (3) |
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82 | (3) |
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4 Climate Controls: Earth's Reflectivity |
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85 | (24) |
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89 | (13) |
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4.1.1 At Earth's surface: Ice, water, and vegetation |
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89 | (1) |
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89 | (3) |
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4.1.1.2 Water and sea level |
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92 | (2) |
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94 | (1) |
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4.1.2 In the atmosphere: Aerosols and clouds |
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95 | (1) |
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96 | (3) |
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99 | (3) |
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4.2 Anthropogenic variability |
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102 | (4) |
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102 | (2) |
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4.2.2 Anthropogenic aerosols |
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104 | (2) |
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106 | (3) |
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5 Climate Controls: The Greenhouse Effect |
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109 | (30) |
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5.1 How does the greenhouse effect work? |
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112 | (8) |
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5.1.1 Characteristics of a good greenhouse gas |
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112 | (5) |
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5.1.2 Energy flows in a greenhouse world |
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117 | (3) |
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5.2 The unperturbed carbon cycle and natural greenhouse variability |
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120 | (13) |
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5.2.1 Carbon stocks and flows |
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120 | (2) |
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5.2.2 Time scales of natural greenhouse variability |
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122 | (1) |
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5.2.2.1 The long-term view: Hundreds of millions of years |
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123 | (2) |
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5.2.2.2 The medium-term view: Hundreds of thousands of years |
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125 | (2) |
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5.2.2.3 Abrupt change: Analogue for our future? |
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127 | (2) |
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5.2.3 Feedbacks involving the greenhouse effect |
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129 | (4) |
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5.3 Anthropogenic interference |
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133 | (6) |
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5.3.1 Perturbed stocks, flows, and chemical fingerprints |
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133 | (3) |
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5.3.2 Cumulative carbon emissions: A budget |
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136 | (3) |
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6 Climate Change Mitigation: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Transforming the Energy System |
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139 | (30) |
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6.1 Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: An overview |
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143 | (3) |
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6.2 The global energy system |
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146 | (2) |
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6.3 Mitigation strategies |
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148 | (20) |
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6.3.1 Demand-side mitigation: Energy efficiency and conservation |
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149 | (1) |
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6.3.1.1 Energy-efficient technologies |
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150 | (1) |
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6.3.1.2 Conservation and behavior change |
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151 | (3) |
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6.3.2 Supply-side mitigation |
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154 | (2) |
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156 | (1) |
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157 | (1) |
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6.3.2.3 Biomass and biofuels |
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158 | (2) |
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6.3.2.4 Geothermal energy |
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160 | (2) |
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162 | (2) |
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6.3.3 Carbon capture and storage |
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164 | (1) |
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6.3.3.1 Carbon capture and storage |
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164 | (3) |
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6.3.3.2 Carbon sequestration |
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167 | (1) |
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6.4 Fostering accelerated and transformative mitigation |
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168 | (1) |
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169 | (22) |
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172 | (8) |
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7.1.1 Physical principles |
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172 | (1) |
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7.1.2 The role of observations |
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173 | (3) |
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176 | (2) |
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178 | (1) |
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7.1.5 Testing climate models |
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179 | (1) |
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7.2 Types of climate models |
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180 | (9) |
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7.2.1 Energy balance models |
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180 | (4) |
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7.2.2 Earth system models of intermediate complexity |
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184 | (1) |
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7.2.3 General circulation models |
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185 | (1) |
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7.2.4 Regional climate models |
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186 | (2) |
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7.2.5 Integrated assessment models |
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188 | (1) |
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7.3 Certainties and uncertainties |
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189 | (2) |
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8 Future Climate: Emissions, Climatic Shifts, and What to Do about Them |
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191 | (21) |
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194 | (7) |
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8.1.1 SRES scenario "families" and storylines |
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196 | (4) |
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8.1.2 Post-SRES and representative concentration pathways |
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200 | (1) |
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8.2 The global climate in 2100 |
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201 | (8) |
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8.2.1 Temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise, and extreme weather |
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201 | (1) |
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202 | (2) |
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204 | (1) |
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205 | (1) |
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8.2.1.4 Extreme weather and abrupt changes |
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206 | (1) |
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207 | (2) |
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209 | (1) |
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8.4 The scale of the challenge: Transforming emissions pathways |
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210 | (2) |
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9 Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Systems |
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212 | (25) |
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215 | (11) |
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215 | (2) |
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9.1.1.1 The changing timing of events, migration of species, and altered morphology |
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217 | (4) |
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9.1.1.2 Coastal erosion and rising sea levels |
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221 | (1) |
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9.1.2 Impacts in the oceans |
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222 | (4) |
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9.2 Adaptation in natural systems |
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226 | (4) |
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9.3 Policy tools and progress |
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230 | (6) |
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9.3.1 International tools |
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231 | (1) |
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9.3.2 National and subnational tools |
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232 | (1) |
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9.3.2.1 Ecosystem-based approaches at work: The Wallasea Island Wild Coast project |
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233 | (1) |
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9.3.2.2 Ecosystem-based approaches at work: Peatland rewetting in Belarus |
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234 | (2) |
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9.3.2.3 Ecosystem-based approaches: Conclusion |
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236 | (1) |
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236 | (1) |
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10 Climate Change Impacts on Human Systems |
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237 | (24) |
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239 | (1) |
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10.2 Key concepts in climate change impacts and adaptation |
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240 | (4) |
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10.3 Observed and projected impacts of climate change |
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244 | (6) |
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10.3.1 Impacts on water and food |
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244 | (3) |
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10.3.2 Impacts on cities and infrastructure |
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247 | (1) |
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10.3.3 Equity implications: Health and the global distribution of wealth |
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248 | (2) |
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10.4 Adaptation in human systems |
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250 | (4) |
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10.4.1 How to "do" adaptation |
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251 | (3) |
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10.5 Policy tools and progress |
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254 | (7) |
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10.5.1 Policy tools for adaptation |
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254 | (2) |
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10.5.2 International and national adaptation |
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256 | (1) |
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10.5.3 Subnational adaptation |
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257 | (2) |
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10.5.4 Social movements and human behavior: The root of the adaptation conundrum |
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259 | (2) |
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11 Understanding Climate Change: Pathways Forward |
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261 | (14) |
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11.1 Integrating adaptation and mitigation: A sustainability approach |
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263 | (3) |
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11.2 Development paths and transformative change |
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266 | (3) |
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11.3 Ethics, equity, and responsibility |
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269 | (2) |
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11.4 Individual choice and collective action: Moving forward |
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271 | (2) |
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11.4.1 Evidence-based decision-making and the science/policy interface |
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272 | (1) |
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273 | (2) |
Notes |
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275 | (24) |
Index |
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299 | |