Preface |
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xi | |
Acknowledgements |
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xvii | |
Biography |
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xix | |
Abbreviations |
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xxi | |
Chapter 1 The great global warming scare |
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1 | (74) |
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1.1 Climate change: The background |
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1 | (32) |
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1.1.1 The definition of climate |
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1 | (4) |
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1.1.2 The scale in time and space A |
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5 | (1) |
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6 | (3) |
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1.1.4 The causes of climate change |
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9 | (1) |
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1.1.4.1 Events that occur outside the earth |
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9 | (1) |
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1.1.5 Natural events on the earth |
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10 | (8) |
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10 | (2) |
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12 | (2) |
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1.1.5.3 The lithosphere, volcanic eruptions |
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14 | (1) |
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1.1.5.4 Ocean circulation |
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14 | (2) |
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16 | (2) |
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18 | (15) |
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1.1.6.1 Carbon dioxide CO, |
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18 | (1) |
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18 | (8) |
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1.1.6.3 Development of land areas |
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26 | (3) |
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1.1.6.4 Other greenhouse gases |
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29 | (2) |
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1.1.6.5 Human activities and the greenhouse effect |
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31 | (2) |
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1.2 The emergence of the modern environmental movement (alias the green movement) |
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33 | (14) |
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33 | (2) |
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35 | (2) |
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1.2.3 The club of Rome, limits to growth, the Stockholm conference 1972, only one earth, blueprint for survival |
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37 | (3) |
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1.2.4 Cold war cooperation between East and West |
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40 | (1) |
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1.2.5 Some more conferences |
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41 | (2) |
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1.2.6 The intergovernmental panel on climate change |
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43 | (2) |
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1.2.7 Why we disagree about climate change (Hulme 2009) |
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45 | (2) |
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1.3 Sustainability, survival |
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47 | (28) |
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47 | (1) |
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1.3.2 Limits to growth, the Club of Rome |
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47 | (3) |
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1.3.3 Defining sustainability |
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50 | (3) |
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53 | (1) |
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1.3.5 The end of fossil fuels and other minerals |
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54 | (3) |
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1.3.6 Can the party continue? |
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57 | (9) |
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58 | (1) |
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58 | (1) |
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59 | (1) |
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59 | (1) |
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1.3.6.5 Hydropower and geothermal |
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59 | (3) |
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62 | (1) |
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62 | (1) |
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63 | (2) |
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1.3.6.9 Waves, tidal systems, etc |
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65 | (1) |
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1.3.6.10 Hydrogen and fuel cells |
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65 | (1) |
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65 | (1) |
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1.3.7 Sustainable energy without the hot air |
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66 | (2) |
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68 | (1) |
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1.3.9 The collapse of former civilisations |
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69 | (1) |
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70 | (1) |
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1.3.11 Incomplete collapse: Example the end of the roman empire |
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71 | (1) |
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1.3.12 Current environmental threats |
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71 | (4) |
Chapter 2 The atmosphere |
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75 | (32) |
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75 | (1) |
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2.2 Composition of the atmosphere |
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76 | (4) |
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2.3 The Earth's radiation budget |
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80 | (3) |
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2.3.1 Global energy flows |
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80 | (2) |
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2.3.2 Earth's radiation budget and climate |
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82 | (1) |
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2.4 Optically active minor gaseous components |
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83 | (10) |
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93 | (3) |
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2.5.1 Natural and anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere |
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93 | (1) |
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2.5.2 Aerosol optical properties |
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93 | (1) |
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94 | (1) |
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2.5.4 The spatial and temporal distribution of aerosols |
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95 | (1) |
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96 | (11) |
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2.6.1 Formation of clouds |
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96 | (1) |
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97 | (1) |
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2.6.3 Cloudiness and radiation |
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98 | (9) |
Chapter 3 The hydrosphere |
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107 | (34) |
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107 | (2) |
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3.2 The hydrological cycle |
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109 | (3) |
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112 | (6) |
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3.3.1 The thermohaline circulation |
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112 | (2) |
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3.3.2 Studies of heat and water balances in the world's oceans |
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114 | (3) |
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3.3.3 Nonlinearities in oceans and climate feedbacks |
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117 | (1) |
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118 | (3) |
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121 | (3) |
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3.6 Case-studies of hydrological applications |
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124 | (17) |
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3.6.1 Modelling the state of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystems |
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125 | (17) |
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128 | (5) |
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3.6.1.2 The future of the Aral Sea |
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133 | (1) |
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3.6.1.3 The water balance of the Aral Sea, a new recovery scenario |
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133 | (4) |
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3.6.1.4 Other threatened seas |
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137 | (4) |
Chapter 4 The biosphere, lithosphere, and cryosphere |
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141 | (30) |
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141 | (1) |
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142 | (12) |
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4.2.1 The cumulative carbon transfers since the industrial revolution |
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143 | (3) |
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4.2.2 The carbon cycle: annual data |
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146 | (8) |
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154 | (3) |
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157 | (14) |
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4.4.1 The Arctic and the Antarctic |
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160 | (5) |
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165 | (1) |
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4.4.3 Observations of the cryosphere |
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166 | (3) |
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4.4.4 Thermal radiation and the snow cover: exploration tools |
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169 | (2) |
Chapter 5 Energy, the driver of the climate system |
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171 | (30) |
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171 | (2) |
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5.1.1 Why discuss energy? |
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171 | (1) |
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171 | (2) |
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5.2 A digression: What is energy? |
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173 | (2) |
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5.3 The Green Agenda and energy, Energiewende |
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175 | (7) |
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5.4 The curse of intermittency |
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182 | (7) |
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5.5 Nuclear energy and the generation of electricity |
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189 | (3) |
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5.6 Energy resources and the environment |
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192 | (1) |
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5.7 Decarbonisation potential in the global energy system |
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193 | (2) |
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5.8 Radioactive environmental contamination from nuclear energy |
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195 | (6) |
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195 | (2) |
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5.8.2 Nuclear waste management |
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197 | (4) |
Chapter 6 Climate data, analysis, modelling |
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201 | (80) |
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201 | (1) |
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202 | (1) |
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6.3 Meteorological satellites |
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203 | (8) |
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6.4 Satellites and climate modelling |
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211 | (1) |
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6.5 The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) |
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212 | (5) |
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6.6 Trace gases and pollutants |
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217 | (4) |
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6.7 Earth radiation budget, clouds, and aerosol |
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221 | (5) |
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223 | (1) |
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224 | (2) |
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226 | (8) |
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6.8.1 The eruption of circa AD 535-6 |
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226 | (2) |
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228 | (4) |
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232 | (1) |
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232 | (2) |
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234 | (8) |
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234 | (1) |
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6.9.2 Modelling aerosol properties |
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235 | (1) |
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6.9.3 Climatic impacts of aerosols |
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236 | (1) |
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6.9.4 Tropospheric aerosols |
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237 | (1) |
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237 | (1) |
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6.9.6 Stratospheric aerosols |
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238 | (4) |
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6.10 Remote sensing and volcanic eruptions |
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242 | (15) |
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6.10.1 Satellite observations |
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248 | (2) |
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6.10.2 Aircraft observations |
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250 | (2) |
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6.10.3 Balloon observations |
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252 | (1) |
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6.10.4 Surface observations |
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253 | (2) |
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6.10.5 Climatic consequences of the Mount Pinatubo eruption |
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255 | (2) |
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257 | (8) |
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257 | (4) |
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261 | (1) |
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6.11.3 The concepts of land cover and land use |
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262 | (2) |
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6.11.4 Palaeoclimatic information: catastrophic changes |
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264 | (1) |
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265 | (12) |
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6.12.1 Weather forecast models |
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266 | (2) |
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6.12.2 Climate-forecast models |
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268 | (2) |
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6.12.3 The surface boundary conditions |
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270 | (3) |
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6.12.4 Feedback mechanisms |
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273 | (1) |
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6.12.5 The use of general: circulation models |
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274 | (3) |
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6.13 Carbon dioxide and climate |
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277 | (4) |
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6.13.1 Numerical modelling for CO2 increase |
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277 | (4) |
Chapter 7 The IPCC and its recommendations |
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281 | (80) |
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281 | (1) |
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7.2 Soviet Climatology in the Second Half of the 20th Century |
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281 | (12) |
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7.2.1 The cold war period |
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281 | (7) |
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7.2.2 Soviet climate change dialogue with the West |
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288 | (1) |
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7.2.3 US-USSR climate science collaboration |
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288 | (1) |
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7.2.4 Soviet involvement in the activities of the WMO and IPCC |
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289 | (3) |
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7.2.5 The distinctive soviet contribution |
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292 | (1) |
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293 | (19) |
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293 | (1) |
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7.3.2 Why are the IPCC assessments so important? |
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294 | (1) |
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7.3.3 The IPCC first assessment |
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295 | (2) |
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7.3.4 The second and subsequent assessment reports |
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297 | (6) |
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7.3.4.1 Concerns about the IPCC's climate models |
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301 | (1) |
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7.3.4.2 Political manipulation |
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302 | (1) |
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7.3.4.3 Himalayan glaciers |
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302 | (1) |
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7.3.5 Predicted consequences of climate change |
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303 | (27) |
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304 | (1) |
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7.3.5.2 Freshwater resources |
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305 | (1) |
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306 | (1) |
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7.3.5.4 Agriculture and food supply |
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306 | (2) |
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7.3.5.5 Natural ecosystems |
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308 | (1) |
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7.3.5.6 Impact on human health |
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309 | (1) |
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310 | (1) |
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7.3.5.8 Consensus and Validation |
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311 | (1) |
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7.4 The concept of global ecology |
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312 | (7) |
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7.5 Academician KiriII Kondratyev and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) |
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319 | (4) |
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7.6 The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol |
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323 | (5) |
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328 | (2) |
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7.8 Cooling off on global warming |
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330 | (7) |
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7.8.1 The soviet climatologists |
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330 | (1) |
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7.8.2 Human-induced global warming sceptics |
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330 | (4) |
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7.8.3 How do we define mean global (or global mean) temperature? |
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334 | (3) |
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7.9 The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) |
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337 | (5) |
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7.9.1 The origins of the NIPCC |
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337 | (1) |
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7.9.2 The NIPCC report of 2008 |
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338 | (10) |
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340 | (1) |
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7.9.2.2 Why scientists disagree |
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340 | (1) |
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7.9.2.3 Scientific method vs. political science |
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340 | (1) |
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7.9.2.4 Flawed projections |
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341 | (1) |
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341 | (1) |
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7.9.2.6 Unreliable circumstantial evidence |
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341 | (1) |
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7.9.2.7 Policy implications |
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341 | (1) |
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7.10 Politics, Margaret Thatcher and James Hansen |
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342 | (1) |
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7.11 The green movement and human-induced global warming |
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343 | (5) |
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348 | (6) |
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7.12.1 Scientific consensus |
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348 | (2) |
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7.12.2 Surveys allegedly supporting consensus |
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350 | (1) |
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7.12.3 Evidence of lack of consensus |
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351 | (3) |
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353 | (1) |
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353 | (1) |
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7.12.3.3 Why scientists disagree |
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354 | (1) |
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7.12.3.4 Appeals to consensus |
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354 | (1) |
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7.13 Climate Models, C.P., SCC, and IAMB |
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354 | (7) |
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7.13.1 C.P. or ceteris paribus |
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354 | (2) |
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7.13.2 SCC, the social cost of carbon, carbon tax |
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356 | (5) |
Chapter 8 Climate change: Energy resources-nuclear accidents |
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361 | (36) |
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361 | (1) |
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8.2 Nuclear war and climate |
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361 | (2) |
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8.3 Nuclear energy, nuclear winter |
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363 | (2) |
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363 | (1) |
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364 | (1) |
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8.4 The big mistake surrounding the IPCC and the UNFCCC |
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365 | (4) |
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8.4.1 The Montreal Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol |
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366 | (2) |
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8.4.2 The United Nations and the Montreal: Kyoto Protocols |
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368 | (1) |
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369 | (10) |
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371 | (2) |
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8.5.2 Greta Thunberg; extinction rebellion |
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373 | (3) |
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376 | (1) |
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377 | (2) |
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379 | (4) |
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8.6.1 The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) |
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382 | (1) |
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8.7 The World's most dangerous animal |
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383 | (1) |
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8.8 Economic growth is not our salvation |
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383 | (5) |
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8.9 Recent additions to the Climate Change Literature |
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388 | (4) |
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8.10 A new tool for environmental risk assessment: Natural time analysis |
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392 | (5) |
References |
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397 | (22) |
Index |
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419 | |