Editors' Introductions |
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xiii | |
List of Contributors |
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xv | |
Preface |
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xix | |
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1 Land Systems Vulnerability |
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1 | (10) |
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1 | (2) |
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3 | (2) |
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5 | (1) |
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5 | (6) |
Part I Hazards and Vulnerability |
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2 Drought and Extreme Climate Stress on Human-Environment Systems in the Gobi Desert Mongolia |
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11 | (16) |
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11 | (3) |
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2.1.1 Social ecological systems |
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12 | (1) |
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2.1.2 Mongolian rangelands |
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13 | (1) |
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14 | (1) |
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14 | (1) |
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14 | (1) |
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15 | (4) |
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2.3.1 Spatial continuity of droughts |
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15 | (1) |
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16 | (1) |
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2.3.3 Dzud and drought: non-drought years |
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17 | (2) |
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19 | (3) |
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20 | (2) |
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22 | (1) |
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22 | (1) |
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22 | (5) |
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3 Vulnerability and Resilience of the Mongolian Pastoral Social-Ecological Systems to Multiple Stressors |
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27 | (14) |
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27 | (2) |
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3.2 The current situation |
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29 | (3) |
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29 | (1) |
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30 | (1) |
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31 | (1) |
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31 | (1) |
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3.3 Analysis of vulnerability of critical ecosystem services |
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32 | (2) |
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3.3.1 Vulnerability index of pastoral systems |
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32 | (1) |
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3.3.2 Integrated zud index |
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32 | (1) |
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3.3.3 Rangeland use index |
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33 | (1) |
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3.3.4 Assessment of rangeland vulnerability to climate and land-use changes |
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34 | (1) |
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34 | (3) |
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3.5 Summary and conclusion |
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37 | (1) |
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38 | (1) |
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38 | (1) |
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39 | (2) |
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4 Vulnerability of Pastoral Communities in Central Mongolia to Climate and Land-Use Changes |
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41 | (22) |
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41 | (2) |
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4.2 Study sites and methodology |
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43 | (2) |
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45 | (1) |
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4.4 The results of a social survey related to the 'dryland development paradigm' |
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46 | (3) |
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4.5 Pastoral social-ecological scenarios |
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49 | (7) |
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4.6 Policy-related social survey |
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56 | (3) |
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59 | (1) |
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60 | (1) |
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61 | (1) |
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61 | (2) |
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5 Vulnerability Assessment Diagram: A Case Study on Drought in Middle Inner Mongolia, China |
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63 | (14) |
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63 | (1) |
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5.2 An integrated diagram for vulnerability assessment: the VSD model |
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64 | (2) |
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5.3 Case study using the VSD model |
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66 | (3) |
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66 | (1) |
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5.3.2 Vulnerability profile at the county level |
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67 | (2) |
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5.4 Results and discussion |
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69 | (3) |
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5.4.1 Relative impact of the components on the vulnerability index |
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69 | (2) |
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71 | (1) |
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72 | (2) |
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74 | (3) |
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6 Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Arid Regions: a Case Study of Western Rajasthan, India |
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77 | (14) |
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77 | (1) |
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6.2 Climate change scenarios: global, national and local levels |
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78 | (2) |
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80 | (1) |
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80 | (2) |
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6.5 Results and discussions |
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82 | (7) |
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6.5.1 Climate variability |
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82 | (1) |
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6.5.2 Vulnerability assessment |
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82 | (4) |
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86 | (3) |
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89 | (1) |
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89 | (2) |
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7 Dendrogeomorphotogicat and Sedimentological Analysis of Debris Flow Hazards in the Northern Zailiiskiy Alatau, Tien Shan Mountains, Kazakhstan |
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91 | (26) |
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91 | (2) |
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93 | (1) |
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7.3 Methods and materials |
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93 | (7) |
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7.3.1 Geomorphology and sedimentology |
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93 | (3) |
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96 | (1) |
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7.3.3 Dendrogeomorphology |
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96 | (1) |
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7.3.4 Cross-dating, reference series identification and skeleton plotting |
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96 | (3) |
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7.3.5 Seedling establishment, growth rates below coring height and earthquakes |
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99 | (1) |
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100 | (7) |
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7.4.1 Growth rate and establishment periods |
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100 | (2) |
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102 | (1) |
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7.4.3 Sedimentology, geomorphology and dating of fluvial terraces, fans and debris flows in the Ozernaya valley |
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102 | (2) |
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7.4.4 Debris flow events in the Ozernaya Valley and archival records |
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104 | (3) |
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107 | (3) |
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110 | (1) |
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111 | (1) |
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111 | (6) |
Part II Land-use Change: Modelling and Impact Assessment |
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8 Regional Scenarios and Simulated Land-Cover Changes in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia |
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117 | (26) |
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117 | (2) |
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119 | (10) |
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8.2.1 Baseline land-cover classification |
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120 | (1) |
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121 | (8) |
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8.2.3 Land-cover allocation |
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129 | (1) |
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129 | (6) |
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8.4 Discussion and conclusions |
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135 | (3) |
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138 | (1) |
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138 | (5) |
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9 Land-use Change and its Impacts on Agricultural Productivity in China |
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143 | (12) |
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143 | (1) |
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144 | (1) |
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9.3 Methods for estimating changes in agricultural productivity |
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145 | (2) |
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9.3.1 NPP estimation with the GLO-PEM model |
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145 | (1) |
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9.3.2 Agro-ecological zones (AEZ) model |
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146 | (1) |
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9.3.3 Calculating agricultural productivity change caused by land use change |
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146 | (1) |
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9.4 Agricultural productivity change caused by cropland transformation |
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147 | (5) |
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9.4.1 Cropland transformation |
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147 | (1) |
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9.4.2 Contributions of cropland area change to agricultural productivity |
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148 | (2) |
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9.4.3 Agricultural productivity change caused by major land use change types |
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150 | (1) |
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9.4.4 Changes in potential agricultural productivity due to cropland conversions |
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151 | (1) |
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152 | (1) |
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152 | (1) |
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152 | (3) |
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10 Long-Term Land-Cover Change in the Amur River Basin |
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155 | (10) |
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155 | (1) |
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10.2 Outline of study area |
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156 | (1) |
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157 | (1) |
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10.3.1 NOAA/AVHRR PAL dataset |
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157 | (1) |
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10.3.2 Statistical materials used in the agricultural and field investigation |
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157 | (1) |
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158 | (1) |
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10.4.1 Analysis of secular variation from 1982 to 2000 |
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158 | (1) |
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10.5 Results and consideration |
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159 | (4) |
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10.5.1 Analysis of secular variation in land cover from 1982 to 2000 |
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159 | (3) |
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10.5.2 Verification of validity of PAL data analysis |
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162 | (1) |
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163 | (1) |
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163 | (1) |
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163 | (2) |
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11 Simulating Land-use Change in China from a Global Perspective |
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165 | (14) |
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165 | (1) |
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166 | (2) |
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168 | (2) |
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170 | (1) |
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171 | (5) |
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11.5.1 Historical simulation |
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171 | (2) |
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11.5.2 Future 'business as usual' scenario |
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173 | (3) |
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11.6 Discussion and conclusions |
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176 | (1) |
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176 | (1) |
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176 | (3) |
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12 Sustainable Land Use Planning in West Asia Using MicroLEIS Decision Support Systems |
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179 | (16) |
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179 | (2) |
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12.2 Materials and methods |
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181 | (4) |
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181 | (1) |
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181 | (1) |
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181 | (2) |
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12.2.4 The MicroLEIS technology |
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183 | (2) |
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12.3 Modelling with MicroLEIS in the Ahar region |
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185 | (6) |
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12.3.1 Arable land identification |
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185 | (1) |
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12.3.2 Semi-natural habitats |
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186 | (1) |
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12.3.3 Crop diversification |
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187 | (3) |
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12.3.4 Soil productivity capability evaluation |
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190 | (1) |
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12.3.5 Soil fertility capability evaluation |
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191 | (1) |
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191 | (2) |
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193 | (1) |
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193 | (2) |
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13 Impacts of Agricultural Land Change on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in Kahayan Watershed, Central Kalimantan |
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195 | (20) |
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195 | (2) |
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13.2 Study locations and methods |
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197 | (3) |
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13.2.1 Study sites: Bawan village, Central Kalimantan |
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197 | (3) |
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13.2.2 Participatory rural appraisal |
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200 | (1) |
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13.3 Results and discussion |
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200 | (12) |
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13.3.1 Current status of the Kahayan watershed |
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200 | (1) |
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13.3.2 Biodiversity and forest products in Bawan village |
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201 | (5) |
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13.3.3 Ecosystem services in Bawan village |
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206 | (1) |
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13.3.4 Rubber plantations in Bawan village |
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206 | (4) |
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13.3.5 Changes in farming systems and agricultural produce |
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210 | (2) |
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212 | (1) |
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212 | (1) |
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212 | (3) |
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14 Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Urban Structure in Shanghai |
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215 | (22) |
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215 | (1) |
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14.2 Theoretical framework, study area, data, and methodology |
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216 | (3) |
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14.2.1 Theoretical framework |
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216 | (2) |
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218 | (1) |
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14.2.3 Data and methodology |
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219 | (1) |
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219 | (7) |
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14.3.1 Urban evolution of Shanghai |
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219 | (3) |
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14.3.2 Urban transformation at the district level |
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222 | (4) |
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226 | (4) |
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14.4.1 Economic restructuring and globalization |
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227 | (1) |
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14.4.2 Changing population profile and impact on the housing market |
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228 | (1) |
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14.4.3 The role of the multi-scaled state |
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229 | (1) |
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230 | (2) |
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232 | (1) |
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232 | (5) |
Part III Institutions |
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15 Governing Ecosystem Services from Upland Watersheds in Southeast Asia |
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237 | (24) |
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237 | (1) |
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238 | (4) |
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238 | (1) |
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15.2.2 Forest and watershed classifications |
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239 | (2) |
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15.2.3 Participatory land-use planning |
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241 | (1) |
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242 | (4) |
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15.3.1 Property rights and land tenure |
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242 | (1) |
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15.3.2 Community-based management |
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243 | (1) |
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15.3.3 Logging concessions |
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244 | (1) |
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245 | (1) |
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246 | (3) |
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15.4.1 Payments for ecosystem services |
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246 | (2) |
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248 | (1) |
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249 | (1) |
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250 | (2) |
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252 | (1) |
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253 | (1) |
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253 | (8) |
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16 Socio-Economic Impacts of a Wetland Restoration Program in China's Poyang Lake Region |
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261 | (16) |
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261 | (2) |
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263 | (1) |
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263 | (1) |
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264 | (3) |
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16.3.1 Analysis of land use and economic data |
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264 | (1) |
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16.3.2 Stakeholder analysis |
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264 | (1) |
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265 | (1) |
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16.3.4 Farmers' willingness to accept eco-compensation (WTA) |
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265 | (1) |
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16.3.5 Estimation of the eco-compensation burden of the local governments |
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266 | (1) |
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267 | (5) |
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267 | (1) |
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16.4.2 Changes in the economic structure |
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268 | (1) |
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16.4.3 Stakeholder groups |
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269 | (1) |
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16.4.4 Farmers' willingness to accept eco-compensation |
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270 | (2) |
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16.4.5 Eco-compensation burden of the local governments |
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272 | (1) |
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272 | (2) |
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274 | (1) |
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275 | (1) |
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275 | (2) |
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17 China's Sloping Land Conversion Program: Are the Farmers Paid Enough? |
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277 | (8) |
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277 | (1) |
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278 | (1) |
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17.3 Data sources and analysis |
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279 | (1) |
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17.4 Results and discussion |
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280 | (2) |
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17.4.1 Quantitative data on land-cover change |
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280 | (1) |
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17.4.2 Carbon dynamics in the Landscape |
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281 | (1) |
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281 | (1) |
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282 | (1) |
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283 | (2) |
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18 Community-Based Peatland Management for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Based on Fire-Free Land Preparation |
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285 | (12) |
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285 | (1) |
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18.2 Greenhouse gas emissions |
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286 | (3) |
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18.2.1 Southeast Asian greenhouse gases emissions |
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286 | (1) |
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18.2.2 Indonesian greenhouse gas emissions |
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287 | (2) |
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18.3 The current Indonesian forest fire situation |
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289 | (1) |
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18.4 Greenhouse gas emissions reduction |
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290 | (5) |
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290 | (1) |
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18.4.2 Greenhouse gas emission reduction through land preparation without fire: an example from the community |
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291 | (4) |
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18.4.3 Peatland management and restoration of organic soils |
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295 | (1) |
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295 | (1) |
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295 | (1) |
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296 | (1) |
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19 Structuring Climate Finance for Adaptation Measures in Vulnerable Ecosystems: Lessons from India |
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297 | (14) |
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297 | (1) |
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298 | (1) |
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19.3 Methodology of field studies |
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298 | (1) |
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19.4 Co-benefits approach to adaptation financing and equity |
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299 | (2) |
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19.5 Adaptation gradients |
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301 | (1) |
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19.6 Adaptation possibility trends for agro and coastal ecosystems: preliminary assessment |
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302 | (1) |
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19.7 Financing systems for adaptation to climate change |
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303 | (3) |
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19.8 Evidence from the study area |
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306 | (1) |
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19.9 Lessons and implications: summing up |
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307 | (1) |
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308 | (3) |
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20 Scientific Uncertainty and Policy Making: How can Communications Contribute to a Better Marriage in the Global Change Arena? |
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311 | (12) |
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20.1 A case study: the establishment of marine reserves off the Californian coast |
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312 | (1) |
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313 | (2) |
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20.3 Communicating scientific uncertainty |
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315 | (1) |
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20.3.1 Quantifying uncertainties |
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315 | (1) |
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20.3.2 Communicating the quantified uncertainties |
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316 | (1) |
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20.4 The need for a new language |
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316 | (1) |
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317 | (1) |
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20.6 A learning experience |
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318 | (1) |
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319 | (1) |
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319 | (4) |
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21 Planning for Resilience: the Quest for Learning and Adaptation |
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323 | (14) |
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Fernando Teigao dos Santos |
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21.1 Introductory insights |
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323 | (1) |
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21.2 The global 'carousel' context |
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324 | (1) |
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21.3 Looking at the resilience framework |
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325 | (3) |
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21.4 Planning for resilience |
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328 | (1) |
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21.5 'Command-and-control' vs 'learning-and-adaptation' |
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329 | (2) |
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21.6 The strategic SPARK example |
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331 | (1) |
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21.7 Final considerations |
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332 | (1) |
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333 | (1) |
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333 | (4) |
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337 | (6) |
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22.1 Improving understanding in areas lacking data |
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337 | (2) |
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22.2 Highlighting the effects of scale |
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339 | (1) |
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22.3 Validating the conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment |
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339 | (1) |
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22.4 Land system vulnerability in other parts of the world |
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339 | (1) |
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340 | (1) |
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341 | (1) |
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341 | (2) |
Index |
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343 | |