Preface |
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iii | |
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xvii | |
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xix | |
Summary |
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xxiii | |
Acknowledgments |
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lix | |
Abbreviations |
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lxi | |
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1 | (22) |
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1 | (13) |
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The Globalization of Insurgency and COIN |
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14 | (3) |
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The Untidy and Dynamic World of COIN |
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17 | (2) |
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What to Expect from This Report |
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19 | (4) |
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23 | (26) |
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23 | (1) |
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23 | (9) |
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Type I---Local Insurgency |
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25 | (1) |
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Type II---Local-International Insurgency |
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26 | (1) |
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Type III---Global-Local Insurgency |
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27 | (1) |
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Type IV---Global Insurgency |
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28 | (4) |
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32 | (8) |
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32 | (1) |
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33 | (2) |
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35 | (1) |
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Timing: Understanding, Shaping, and Acting Over the Lifetime of Insurgency |
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36 | (4) |
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40 | (9) |
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40 | (1) |
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41 | (1) |
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42 | (1) |
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43 | (1) |
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44 | (5) |
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Countering Type III Insurgency |
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49 | (26) |
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49 | (9) |
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COIN Challenges from Type III Insurgencies |
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58 | (4) |
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62 | (5) |
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Achieving Legitimacy and Security While Reducing Reliance on Deadly Force |
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67 | (8) |
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Part II: Complete and Balanced Capabilities |
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Overview of Capabilities Needed to Counter Type III Insurgency |
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75 | (12) |
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76 | (2) |
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78 | (3) |
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81 | (2) |
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A Change in Emphasis for U.S. Military Forces |
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83 | (4) |
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87 | (36) |
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87 | (2) |
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Competition in the Civil Realm |
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89 | (1) |
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Strategies to Meet the Challenges of Type III Insurgency |
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90 | (3) |
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90 | (1) |
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91 | (1) |
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92 | (1) |
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Integrating the Three Strategies to Counter Type III Insurgency |
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93 | (2) |
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Expertise and Resources in Functional Areas |
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95 | (2) |
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Coordinated Participation of Multiple Organizations |
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97 | (3) |
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98 | (1) |
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98 | (1) |
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99 | (1) |
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International Organizations |
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99 | (1) |
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Nongovernmental Organizations |
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100 | (1) |
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Guiding Principles for Implementing a Strategy |
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100 | (3) |
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Coordinate Civil and Military Efforts |
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100 | (1) |
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101 | (2) |
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103 | (1) |
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103 | (2) |
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Capabilities: How Ready Is the United States to Conduct Civil COIN? |
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105 | (11) |
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Nature of the Quantitative Analysis |
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106 | (2) |
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The Necessary Operational Culture is Lacking |
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108 | (2) |
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Current Numbers of Personnel Are Too Low |
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110 | (3) |
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Fiscal Resources Are Insufficient |
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113 | (3) |
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Thinking About Future Capabilities |
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116 | (4) |
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Illustrative Scenario 1: ``The Big One'' |
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116 | (1) |
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Illustrative Scenario 2: Two ``Mediums'' |
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117 | (1) |
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Illustrative Scenario 3: Two ``Mediums'' Plus Prevention |
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117 | (3) |
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120 | (1) |
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121 | (2) |
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123 | (38) |
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Information as a Strategic Resource |
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123 | (3) |
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Putting Users First in Setting and Meeting Information Requirements |
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126 | (7) |
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133 | (11) |
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Promoting a Cell Phone Society |
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133 | (4) |
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National Registry-Census, ID Cards, and Vetting |
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137 | (2) |
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Three-Dimensional Awareness |
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139 | (1) |
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140 | (1) |
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141 | (1) |
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Enabling Information Users to Be Productive Information Providers |
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142 | (2) |
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144 | (7) |
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How Much Difference Would ICON Make? |
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151 | (1) |
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152 | (3) |
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Feasibility and Implementation |
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155 | (6) |
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161 | (14) |
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161 | (7) |
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From Information Power to Brain Power |
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168 | (1) |
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Cognitive Capabilities for COIN |
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169 | (3) |
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172 | (3) |
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General Security Capabilities |
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175 | (28) |
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Rethinking Basic Requirements |
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175 | (3) |
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Core Security Capabilities |
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178 | (20) |
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Institutional Management Capacity |
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179 | (2) |
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Uniformed Command and Leadership |
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181 | (1) |
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182 | (1) |
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IO Capabilities and Competence |
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183 | (1) |
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184 | (1) |
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Police and Law Enforcement |
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185 | (2) |
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187 | (1) |
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Technical Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) |
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188 | (1) |
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189 | (1) |
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190 | (1) |
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191 | (1) |
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191 | (1) |
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192 | (1) |
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Specialized Forces for High-Value Targets (HVTs) |
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193 | (1) |
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194 | (1) |
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194 | (4) |
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The Relationship of Local and Foreign Capabilities |
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198 | (5) |
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Local Security Capabilities |
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203 | (14) |
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Factors Affecting Local Capability |
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203 | (6) |
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204 | (1) |
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205 | (3) |
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Initial Condition of the Local Government |
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208 | (1) |
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Priorities for Local Security Capabilities |
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209 | (5) |
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214 | (3) |
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U.S. Security Capabilities |
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217 | (32) |
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Building for Success; Hedging Against Disappointment |
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217 | (1) |
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218 | (15) |
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Three U.S. Missions: Prepare, Enable, Operate |
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218 | (5) |
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Requirements for Preparing, Enabling, and Operating |
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223 | (5) |
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Deficient U.S. Capabilities |
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228 | (5) |
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Hedging Against Disappointment |
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233 | (8) |
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238 | (1) |
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239 | (1) |
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240 | (1) |
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Inclusive, Integrated, User-Based Networks for Sharing and Collaboration |
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240 | (1) |
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Sustainable Ground Operations |
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240 | (1) |
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U.S. Ground Forces---Better or Bigger? |
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241 | (6) |
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247 | (2) |
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PART III: ORGANIZING AND INVESTING |
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Multilateral Counterinsurgency |
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249 | (30) |
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The Case for Multilateral COIN |
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249 | (2) |
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The Content of Multilateral COIN Capabilities |
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251 | (5) |
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Preparing for Multilateral COIN |
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256 | (5) |
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261 | (3) |
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264 | (2) |
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Conducting Multilateral COIN |
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266 | (3) |
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Multilateral COIN Campaign Models |
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269 | (3) |
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Functions, Principles, and Options |
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272 | (4) |
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Political Authority, Strategy-Setting, and Policymaking |
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273 | (1) |
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274 | (1) |
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Command, Control, and Collaboration in Security Operations |
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274 | (1) |
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275 | (1) |
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275 | (1) |
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276 | (3) |
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279 | (24) |
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279 | (2) |
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Setting Investment Priorities |
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281 | (6) |
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Planning High-Priority Investments |
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287 | (8) |
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Investing for an Uncertain Future |
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295 | (2) |
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297 | (4) |
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301 | (2) |
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Organization: Unsettled Structures for Unsettled Times |
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303 | (44) |
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Organizational Issues in Perspective |
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303 | (4) |
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Capability Gaps and Organizational Implications |
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307 | (9) |
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309 | (2) |
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Building Local Security Institutional Capacity |
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311 | (2) |
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Organizing, Training, Equipping, and Advising Foreign Armed Forces |
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313 | (1) |
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314 | (1) |
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314 | (2) |
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Macro-Structural Considerations |
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316 | (8) |
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Government Option 1: Business-as-Usual |
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318 | (2) |
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Government Option 2: Install a COIN Czar |
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320 | (2) |
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Government Option 3: Create a COIN Agency |
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322 | (2) |
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324 | (14) |
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Defense Option 1: Business-as-Usual |
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326 | (1) |
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Defense Option 2: Expand the Scope and Size of U.S. SOCOM |
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327 | (3) |
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Defense Option 3: Assign COIN as a Principal Mission of Regular Forces |
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330 | (5) |
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Defense Option 4: Create a Defense Security Agency |
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335 | (3) |
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338 | (1) |
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Micro-Structural Considerations |
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339 | (8) |
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Implications and Recommendations |
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347 | (94) |
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347 | (4) |
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Complete and Balanced COIN Capabilities |
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351 | (3) |
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354 | (3) |
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357 | (8) |
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357 | (2) |
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359 | (1) |
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Harnessing Information Power |
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360 | (1) |
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361 | (2) |
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Engendering Local Responsibility |
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363 | (2) |
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Getting Started: Specific Recommendations for Immediate Attention |
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365 | (3) |
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366 | (1) |
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Information and Cognition |
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366 | (1) |
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367 | (1) |
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367 | (1) |
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368 | (1) |
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368 | (1) |
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368 | (5) |
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Eighty-Nine Insurgencies: Outcomes and Endings |
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373 | (24) |
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Multilateral COIN Capacity |
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397 | (34) |
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431 | (8) |
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Ground-Force Tasks and Improvements |
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439 | (2) |
About the RAND COIN Team |
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441 | (4) |
Works Cited |
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445 | |