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ix | |
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xii | |
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List of Tables in Appendices |
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xiii | |
Acknowledgements |
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xv | |
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1 V-Dem Reconsiders Democratization |
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1 | (28) |
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1.1 Motivations for This Volume |
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4 | (3) |
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7 | (2) |
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9 | (2) |
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1.4 Varieties of Democracy Data |
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11 | (4) |
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1.5 Methodological Considerations |
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15 | (2) |
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1.6 Democracy as Outcome: Four Dependent Variables |
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17 | (6) |
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23 | (6) |
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2 The Ups and Downs of Democracy, 1789-2018 |
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29 | (26) |
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29 | (3) |
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32 | (2) |
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2.3 Trends in Electoral Democracy |
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34 | (9) |
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2.4 Trends in Subcomponents of Electoral Democracy |
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43 | (5) |
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2.5 Trends in Thicker Aspects of Democracy |
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48 | (5) |
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53 | (2) |
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55 | (25) |
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56 | (5) |
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56 | (1) |
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57 | (1) |
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57 | (2) |
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59 | (1) |
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59 | (1) |
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60 | (1) |
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60 | (1) |
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61 | (5) |
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66 | (5) |
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68 | (1) |
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68 | (1) |
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69 | (1) |
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70 | (1) |
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71 | (1) |
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71 | (3) |
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73 | (1) |
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74 | (4) |
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76 | (2) |
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78 | (2) |
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4 International Influence: The Hidden Dimension |
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80 | (39) |
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82 | (1) |
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4.2 Theoretical Framework |
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83 | (6) |
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4.3 Methodological Considerations |
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89 | (3) |
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92 | (2) |
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92 | (1) |
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4.4.2 Endogenous Influences |
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93 | (1) |
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4.5 Operationalizing the Hypotheses |
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94 | (5) |
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4.5.1 The Dependent Variable and the Sample |
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94 | (1) |
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94 | (1) |
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4.5.3 Endogenous Hypotheses |
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95 | (2) |
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97 | (2) |
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99 | (2) |
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101 | (4) |
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105 | (12) |
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106 | (7) |
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113 | (2) |
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4.8.3 Map of Frontline Contagion Zones |
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115 | (2) |
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117 | (2) |
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119 | (42) |
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119 | (3) |
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5.2 Extant Research on Economic Determinants of Democracy |
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122 | (31) |
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5.2.1 Economic Development |
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122 | (11) |
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5.2.2 Structural Features of the Economy |
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133 | (6) |
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5.2.3 Short-Term Economic Changes |
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139 | (7) |
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146 | (7) |
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5.3 Comprehensive Analysis and Discussion |
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153 | (5) |
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158 | (3) |
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6 Political Institutions and Democracy |
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161 | (24) |
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6.1 Institutions and Democracy |
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163 | (7) |
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164 | (1) |
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6.1.2 Executive Regime Type |
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165 | (3) |
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6.1.3 Parties and Party Systems |
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168 | (2) |
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170 | (2) |
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170 | (1) |
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6.2.2 Independent Variables |
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170 | (2) |
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172 | (11) |
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172 | (9) |
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6.3.2 Pooled Time Series Results |
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181 | (2) |
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183 | (2) |
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7 Democracy and Social Forces |
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185 | (30) |
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185 | (1) |
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7.2 Social Forces, Incorporation, and Democracy |
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186 | (2) |
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7.3 Civil Society and Democracy |
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188 | (2) |
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7.3.1 Contentious Politics as a Catalyst |
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188 | (1) |
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7.3.2 Civil Society and Organized Interests |
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189 | (1) |
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7.4 Theoretical Expectations |
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190 | (2) |
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192 | (8) |
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7.5.1 Measuring Civil Society Organizational Capacity |
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193 | (3) |
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7.5.2 Measuring Civil Society Mobilization |
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196 | (1) |
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7.5.3 Measuring Democracy |
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197 | (1) |
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198 | (1) |
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7.5.5 Estimation Strategy |
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199 | (1) |
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200 | (13) |
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7.6.1 Civil Society Organizational Capacity |
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200 | (3) |
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7.6.2 Civil Society Anti-System Mobilization Using V-Dem |
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203 | (4) |
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7.6.3 Civil Society Mobilization Using NAVCO |
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207 | (6) |
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7.7 Discussion and Conclusions |
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213 | (2) |
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8 Causal Sequences in Long-Term Democratic Development and Decline |
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215 | (47) |
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8.1 Overview of Arguments |
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219 | (8) |
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8.2 Empirical Models of Sequences |
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227 | (5) |
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8.3 Modeling Levels of Electoral Democracy |
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232 | (9) |
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8.4 Modeling Upturns in Electoral Democracy |
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241 | (7) |
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8.5 Modeling Downturns in Electoral Democracy |
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248 | (9) |
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257 | (1) |
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8.7 A Revised Understanding of Democratization |
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258 | (4) |
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262 | (85) |
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Appendix 3 Variable Definitions |
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262 | (85) |
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Appendix 4.A Modeling Spatial Dependence |
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265 | (3) |
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Appendix 4.B Other Networks |
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268 | (2) |
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270 | (2) |
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Appendix 4.D Descriptive Information |
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272 | (3) |
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Appendix 6.A Details on Variables and Analysis |
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275 | (3) |
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Appendix 6.B Cox Hazard Models |
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278 | (3) |
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Appendix 7.A Details of Measurement and Analysis |
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281 | (12) |
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Appendix 7.B Supplemental Tables and Figures |
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293 | (32) |
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Appendix 8.A Structural Equations |
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325 | (3) |
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Appendix 8.B Variable Descriptions |
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328 | (3) |
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Appendix 8.C Additional Path Models |
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331 | (16) |
Bibliography |
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347 | |