| Foreword |
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3 | (2) |
| Acknowledgements |
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5 | (18) |
| Executive Summary |
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23 | (10) |
| Part A: Global Energy Trends |
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33 | (30) |
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34 | (7) |
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1.2 Developing the scenarios |
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41 | (22) |
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1.2.1 Inputs to the modelling |
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45 | (6) |
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1.2.2 International prices and technology costs |
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51 | (12) |
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63 | (44) |
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2.1 How much energy does the world need, and where? |
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64 | (4) |
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2.2 Where now for energy in the United States? |
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68 | (4) |
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2.3 What does China's "energy revolution" mean for its energy outlook, and for the world? |
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72 | (5) |
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2.4 What is the next move for energy-related CO2 emissions? |
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77 | (4) |
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2.5 How much do energy policies matter? |
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81 | (4) |
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2.6 Are new technologies bringing us closer to universal access to electricity? |
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85 | (4) |
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2.7 Is natural gas a fuel in good shape for the future? |
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89 | (4) |
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2.8 Can oil prices stay lower for much longer? |
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93 | (5) |
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2.9 Is the future switching towards electricity? |
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98 | (5) |
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2.10 Is offshore energy yesterday's news or tomorrow's headlines? |
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103 | (4) |
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3 Energy, emissions and universal access |
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107 | (46) |
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108 | (2) |
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3.2 Recent trends and developments |
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110 | (4) |
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3.3 Trends in the New Policies Scenario |
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114 | (15) |
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3.3.1 Outlook for energy access |
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114 | (3) |
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3.3.2 Outlook for energy-related GHG emissions |
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117 | (8) |
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3.3.3 Outlook for energy-related air pollution |
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125 | (4) |
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3.4 The Sustainable Development Scenario |
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129 | (19) |
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129 | (1) |
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3.4.2 Methodology and key assumptions |
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130 | (6) |
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3.4.3 Trends in the Sustainable Development Scenario |
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136 | (12) |
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3.5 What does it take to achieve a faster low-carbon energy transition? |
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148 | (5) |
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153 | (50) |
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4.1 Recent market and policy developments |
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154 | (1) |
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155 | (7) |
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4.2.1 Market dynamics to 2025 |
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155 | (1) |
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4.2.2 Long-term scenarios to 2040 |
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156 | (6) |
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4.3 A closer look at the New Policies Scenario |
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162 | (41) |
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162 | (12) |
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174 | (15) |
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189 | (3) |
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4.3.4 Trade and oil security |
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192 | (8) |
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200 | (3) |
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203 | (26) |
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5.1 Recent market and policy developments |
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204 | (1) |
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5.2 Trends to 2040 by scenario |
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205 | (5) |
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5.2.1 Market dynamics to 2025 |
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205 | (1) |
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5.2.2 Long-term scenarios to 2040 |
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206 | (4) |
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5.3 A closer look at the New Policies Scenario |
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210 | (19) |
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210 | (3) |
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213 | (5) |
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218 | (11) |
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6 Power markets and electrification |
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229 | (52) |
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6.1 Recent market developments |
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230 | (3) |
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233 | (7) |
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6.2.1 Trends to 2040 by scenario |
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233 | (1) |
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6.2.2 Electrification: changing sources of growth |
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234 | (5) |
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6.2.3 Electricity demand and economic growth |
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239 | (1) |
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240 | (41) |
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6.3.1 Recent policy developments |
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240 | (4) |
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6.3.2 Power generation capacity |
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244 | (6) |
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250 | (6) |
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6.3.4 Electricity generation |
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256 | (5) |
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6.3.5 Fossil-fuel consumption in power |
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261 | (2) |
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6.3.6 Power sector CO2 and pollutant emissions |
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263 | (3) |
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6.3.7 Technology costs and competitiveness |
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266 | (6) |
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6.3.8 Support for renewables-based electricity |
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272 | (4) |
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6.3.9 Power generation costs and electricity prices |
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276 | (5) |
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7 Energy efficiency and renewable energy |
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281 | (50) |
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282 | (1) |
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282 | (13) |
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282 | (3) |
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7.2.2 Outlook for energy efficiency |
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285 | (10) |
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295 | (11) |
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295 | (3) |
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7.3.2 Outlook for renewables |
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298 | (8) |
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306 | (3) |
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7.4.1 Investments in renewables and energy efficiency |
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307 | (1) |
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7.4.2 The impact of renewables and energy efficiency on import bills |
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308 | (1) |
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7.5 Interlinkages between energy efficiency and renewables |
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309 | (24) |
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7.5.1 Demand-side response: a meeting point for energy efficiency and variable renewables-based electricity |
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311 | (6) |
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7.5.2 Efficient supply of clean industrial heat |
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317 | (5) |
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7.5.3 Expanding building energy codes to cover renewables |
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322 | (4) |
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7.5.4 The multiple benefits of a joint approach |
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326 | (5) |
| Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas |
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331 | (138) |
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8 Outlook for natural gas |
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333 | (34) |
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8.1 Recent market and policy developments |
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334 | (1) |
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8.2 Trends to 2040 by scenario |
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335 | (4) |
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8.2.1 Market dynamics to 2025 |
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335 | (2) |
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8.2.2 Long-term scenarios to 2040 |
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337 | (2) |
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8.3 A closer look at the New Policies Scenario |
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339 | (28) |
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339 | (6) |
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345 | (5) |
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8.3.3 Regional demand and supply insights |
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350 | (10) |
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8.3.4 Trade and investment |
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360 | (7) |
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367 | (32) |
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368 | (2) |
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9.2 The US shale storm and its repercussions |
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370 | (12) |
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370 | (4) |
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9.2.2 Implications for North America |
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374 | (4) |
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9.2.3 Implications for global market dynamics |
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378 | (4) |
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9.3 The emergence of a new gas order |
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382 | (17) |
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382 | (4) |
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9.3.2 Contracts in gas trade |
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386 | (2) |
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9.3.3 Investments and security of supply |
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388 | (6) |
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9.3.4 Affordability of gas |
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394 | (2) |
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9.3.5 What underpins our New Policies Scenario? |
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396 | (3) |
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10 The environmental case for natural gas |
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399 | (38) |
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10.1 The environmental credentials of natural gas |
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400 | (3) |
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10.1.1 Assessing the environmental credentials of natural gas |
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400 | (3) |
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10.2 Methane emissions: how big is the problem? |
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403 | (15) |
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10.2.1 Methane emissions from the energy sector |
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406 | (1) |
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10.2.2 Methane emissions from oil and gas operations |
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407 | (11) |
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10.3 Tackling methane emissions |
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418 | (5) |
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10.4 Costs and benefits of action on methane emissions |
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423 | (10) |
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10.4.1 Marginal abatement cost curves |
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424 | (7) |
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10.4.2 Climate impacts of methane emissions abatement |
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431 | (1) |
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10.4.3 Summary of costs and benefits |
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432 | (1) |
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10.5 An agenda for action |
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433 | (4) |
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11 Natural gas in a changing energy world |
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437 | (32) |
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438 | (1) |
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11.2 Historical perspectives on coal-to-gas switching |
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438 | (3) |
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11.3 Natural gas use in the New Policies Scenario |
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441 | (8) |
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11.3.1 Analysis by sector and region |
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444 | (3) |
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11.3.2 Limits to the environmental contribution of gas |
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447 | (2) |
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11.4 Natural gas in the Sustainable Development Scenario |
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449 | (11) |
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11.4.1 Analysis by sector and region |
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450 | (10) |
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11.5 Trade and investment |
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460 | (6) |
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11.6 Decarbonising gas supply |
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466 | (3) |
| Part C: China Energy Outlook |
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469 | (170) |
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471 | (36) |
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12.1 Introducing the special focus on China |
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472 | (2) |
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12.2 Energy trends in China today |
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474 | (17) |
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474 | (7) |
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12.2.2 Focus on energy in China's regions and provinces |
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481 | (5) |
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12.2.3 China and global energy markets |
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486 | (5) |
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12.3 Factors affecting China's energy development |
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491 | (16) |
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12.3.1 Economic transition |
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493 | (2) |
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12.3.2 Demographics and urbanisation |
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495 | (1) |
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496 | (2) |
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498 | (1) |
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12.3.5 Energy governance and policies |
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499 | (8) |
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13 Outlook for China's energy demand |
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507 | (54) |
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13.1 China: shifting gears |
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508 | (1) |
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509 | (3) |
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510 | (2) |
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512 | (26) |
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515 | (8) |
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523 | (7) |
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530 | (8) |
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538 | (16) |
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538 | (2) |
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13.4.2 Trends in the New Policies Scenario |
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540 | (5) |
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13.4.3 Power sector reforms |
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545 | (9) |
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13.5 Environmental implications |
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554 | (7) |
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13.5.1 Energy-related CO2 emissions |
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555 | (2) |
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13.5.2 Energy-related air pollution |
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557 | (4) |
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14 Outlook for China's energy supply and investment |
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561 | (46) |
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14.1 Overview of key supply and investment trends |
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562 | (1) |
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563 | (9) |
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14.2.1 Market structure and regulation |
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563 | (5) |
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568 | (4) |
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572 | (12) |
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14.3.1 Market structure and reform |
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572 | (3) |
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575 | (4) |
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14.3.3 Oil trade and refining |
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579 | (5) |
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584 | (12) |
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14.4.1 Market structure and reform |
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584 | (10) |
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594 | (2) |
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596 | (6) |
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597 | (1) |
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598 | (1) |
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599 | (1) |
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600 | (2) |
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602 | (1) |
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602 | (1) |
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603 | (4) |
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15 Global implications of energy policy reforms in China |
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607 | (32) |
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608 | (1) |
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15.2 A recap of key trends in the New Policies Scenario |
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608 | (5) |
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608 | (2) |
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15.2.2 CO2emissions trends |
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610 | (3) |
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15.2.3 Key milestones reached in the New Policies Scenario |
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613 | (1) |
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15.3 What if the macroeconomic transition is slower? |
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613 | (7) |
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15.3.1 Macroeconomic transition in the New Policies Scenario |
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613 | (4) |
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15.3.2 Implications of a slower economic transition |
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617 | (3) |
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620 | (1) |
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15.4 What if the clean energy transition is faster? |
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620 | (8) |
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15.4.1 A possible pathway to a cleaner energy sector |
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621 | (6) |
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15.4.2 China's investment needs in the Sustainable Development Scenario |
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627 | (1) |
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628 | (1) |
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15.5 Global implications of China's energy development |
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628 | (13) |
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15.5.1 Oil, gas and coal markets |
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629 | (7) |
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15.5.2 Low-carbon technologies |
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636 | (3) |
| Annexes |
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639 | |
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Annex A Tables for scenario projections |
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641 | (86) |
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A.1 Fossil fuel production and demand by region |
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644 | (4) |
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A.2 Energy demand, gross electricity generation and electrical capacity, and carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion by region |
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648 | (76) |
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A.3 Global emissions of pollutants by energy sector and fuel |
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724 | (3) |
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Annex B Policies and measures by scenario |
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727 | (12) |
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739 | (14) |
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753 | |
