Student tested before it was published, this textbook provides 30 chapters worth of practical guidance, methods, and tools and techniques to help individuals and organizations to make decisions under uncertainty. The book addresses the challenges posed by uncertainty in a variety of private and public sector fields.
Uncertainty is a part of every decision we make, from the everyday to the high-stakes, from personal choices to professional strategy. The Art of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty offers a clear, practical approach to dealing with the unknown without getting stuck or overwhelmed.
Rather than treating uncertainty as a barrier, this book invites readers to see it as a constant companionsomething to work with, not work against. Drawing on proven tools, real-world examples, and a wealth of practical insight, it shows how to make thoughtful, informed decisions even when information is incomplete, priorities are competing, and the path forward feels anything but clear.
This is not a theory-heavy treatise. Its a textbook guide for real people facing real decisions. Grounded in decision science but written for a broad audience, it bridges the gap between technical complexity and everyday practicality. Whether youre leading a team, managing risk, shaping policy, or simply trying to make better personal choices, this book meets you where you arewith tools that work, language that makes sense, and encouragement to move forward with clarity and confidence.
Inside youll find:
- Straightforward frameworks to help you recognize and manage different types of uncertainty
- Practical tools and techniques you can use right away to make sound decisions in fast-moving or high-pressure situations
- Case studies and examples that bring the concepts to life and show how they apply in work, leadership, and daily life
- Fresh perspectives on failure, bias, and risk, helping you not only avoid common pitfalls but turn setbacks into sources of insight
If youve ever hesitated at a crossroads, second-guessed a big decision, or wished for more clarity in a world that rarely offers it, this book is for you. The Art of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty is your companion in making better choices when certainty is out of reach but a good decision is still within your grasp.
PART ONE Introduction to Decision Making Under Uncertainty. 1 Why
Decisions Under Uncertainty Matter. 2 Decisions: How They Are Made and Why
They Fail. 3 Uncertainty: What It Is and Why It Matters. 4 Risk: The Link
Between Uncertainty and Decisions. 5 Uncertain Outcomes. PART TWO
Psychological and Cultural Aspects of Uncertainty. 6 The Psychology of
Decisions: Fast vs. Slow Thinking. 7 Heuristics and Biases: Why They Fail
Under Uncertainty. 8 Innumeracy: Why It Limits Understanding of Uncertainty.
9 Building a Culture That Embraces Uncertainty. 10 Uncertain Aspects of
Decision Making. 11 The Illusion of Precision. 12 Ignoring Uncertainty. PART
THREE Analytical Tools and Techniques. 13 Managing Information and
Uncertainty. 14 How Risk Preferences Drive Decisions. 15 Risk Analysis. 16
Think More Probabilistically. 17 Characterizing Uncertainty: The Key to
Risk-Informed Decision Making. 18 Tools for Quantitative Characterizations of
Uncertainty. 19 Expert Elicitation: Managing Irreducible Uncertainty. 20
Sensitivity Analysis. 21 The Monte Carlo Process and Scenario Planning. 22
Leveraging Big Data, Analytics, and AI to Combat Uncertainty. PART FOUR
Strategies and Tactics for Effective Decision Making. 23 Strategies and
Tactics for Addressing Uncertainty. 24 Socialize Asking for Evidence. 25
Change the Decision-Making Meeting. 26 Knowing When to Decide. 27 Power-Down
Decision Making. 28 Turning Failure into Insight. PART FIVE Special Topics.
29 Uncertainty in Real-Time Decision Making. 30 False Information. Index
Charles Yoe is a Professor of Economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University and an internationally acclaimed author and consultant specializing in risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty. With more than 40 years of experience, Dr. Yoe has advised a diverse array of clients, including government agencies, private sector organizations, and international institutions, on assessing and managing complex risks across communities of practice such as food safety, flood risk management, international trade, navigation, ecosystem restoration, pharmaceuticals, wildland fires, and others.
Dr. Yoe has authored four widely respected textbooks on risk analysis and numerous articles that bridge the gap between theoretical frameworks and practical applications. His insights have been sought by over 20 U.S. government agencies, as well as global organizations like the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Health Organization. His training workshops and consulting engagements have empowered professionals in over 60 countries to navigate uncertainty effectively, making his work a cornerstone of risk management education and practice.
As the Coordinator of Notre Dame of Maryland Universitys online graduate Risk Management program, Dr. Yoe has developed and taught courses that equip future professionals with critical skills for addressing uncertainty. Recognized for his contributions, he has received multiple awards from U.S. government agencies. Dr. Yoes interdisciplinary expertise and commitment to practical solutions underpin his influential role in advancing decision making under uncertainty. Through his writing, consulting, and teaching, Dr. Yoe continues to influence how individuals and organizations approach risk in an increasingly uncertain world.
