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E-grāmata: Modeling Environment-Improving Technological Innovations under Uncertainty

Edited by , Edited by (Environmental Defense, USA)
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The issues of technology and uncertainty are very much at the heart of the policy debate of how much to control greenhouse gas emissions. The costs of doing so are present and high while the benefits are very much in the future and, most importantly, they are highly uncertain. Whilst there is broad consensus on the key elements of climate change science and agreement that near-term actions are needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, there is little agreement on the costs and benefits of climate policy. The book looks at different ways of reconciling the needs for sustainability and equity with the costs of action now.

Presenting a compendium of methodologies for evaluating the economic impact of technological innovation upon climate-change policy, this book describes mathematical models and their predictions. The goal is to provide a practitioner’s guide for doing the science of economics and climate change. Because the assumptions motivating different problems in the economics of climate change have different complexities, a number of models are presented with varying levels of difficulty: reduced-form and structural, partial- and general-equilibrium, closed-form and computational. A unifying theme of these models is the incorporation of a number of price and quantity instruments and an analysis of their respective efficacies. This book presents models that contain structural uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty that economic agents respond to via their risk attitudes. The novelty of this book is to relate the effects of risk and risk attitudes to environment-improving technological innovation.

List of figures
vii
List of tables
xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Introduction 1(8)
Alexander Golub
Anil Markandya
1 Cost and benefits of climate policy under uncertainty
9(24)
Alexander Golub
Elena Strukova
James S. Wang
2 Trade-offs between expectations and uncertainties: applying real options methodology to climate policy analysis
33(21)
Jon A. Anda
Alexander Golub
Elena Strukova
3 Learning about climate change and its implications for near-term policy
54(24)
Mort Webster
Lisa Jakobovits
James Norton
4 Structural uncertainty in the DICE model
78(49)
Aj A. Bostian
Alexander Golub
5 Abatement cost uncertainty and policy instrument selection under a stringent climate policy
127(31)
Valentina Bosetti
Alexander Golub
Anil Markandya
Emanuele Massetti
Massimo Tavoni
6 The effects of climate policy on the energy--technology mix: an integrated CVaR and real options approach
158(28)
Sabine Fuss
Nikolay Khabarov
Jana Szolgayova
Michael Obersteiner
7 Risk-averse firms and new technologies
186(19)
Alexander Golub
Dan Dudek
Elena Strukova
8 The evolution of technological complexity: an agent-based simulation model of the global energy system
205(40)
Tieju Ma
Arnulf Grubler
9 Does the Kyoto Protocol cost too much and create unbreakable barriers for economic growth?
245(24)
Alexander Golub
Anil Markandya
Dominic Marcellino
10 Improving the contribution of economic models in evaluating energy and climate change mitigation policies
269(19)
John A. "Skip" Laitner
11 The economic benefits of an energy-efficiency and onsite renewable energy strategy in meeting growing electricity needs in Texas
288(21)
John A. "Skip" Laitner
Maggie Eldridge
R. Neal Elliott
12 Low-cost offsets and incentives for new technologies
309(18)
Alexander Golub
Noah Greenberg
Jon A. Anda
James S. Wang
Index 327
Alexander A. Golub is the Senior Research Fellow for the Environmental Defence Fund, USA.

Anil Markandya is Professor of Economics at the University of Bath, UK, and Director of Applied Research at FEEM, Italy.